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Showing posts with label Martin Jacques. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martin Jacques. Show all posts

Sunday 14 May 2023

Chinese modernization leads to Age of Great Majority: Martin Jacques


 

We are at a historic moment. Until very recently, modernity was virtually synonymous with the West. Indeed, the West believed - and still does - that there was only one form of modernity and that was Western modernity. There was just one path: modernization was a process of westernization. This story has a long history. Modernization starts with Britain's Industrial Revolution in the first half of the 19th century. It provided the wherewithal for Britain's vast colonial empire, which came to embrace a quarter of the world's population, in the second half of the 19th century. By 1900, modernization had spread to the US and much of Europe. Apart from Japan, it was an exclusively Western phenomenon. Western-style modernization divided the world into two: the rich world, that was the West; and the great majority, most of whom were colonized. The turning-point came in the second half of the 20th century. The Chinese Revolution in 1949 and decolonization created the possibility for modernization to spread to the great majority of the world's population.

China was to prove the decisive factor in this new possibility. Its demographic size, its sense of independence and identity, its rich historical inheritance, and a remarkable political leadership enabled it to achieve a Chinese path to modernization. It was not the first East Asian country to do so, but it was by far the most important. And its success has greatly enhanced the ability of other developing countries to undertake the process of modernization. We now find ourselves at a great historical juncture. Hitherto modernization was the preserve of a small minority of privileged countries in the world, with the great majority of the world excluded. Now modernization is no longer for a tiny sliver of humanity but is increasingly accessible to the great majority.

We stand on the eve of a very different kind of world. China has been the author and architect of this possibility. It has been the exemplar of what it is possible for the developing world to achieve - huge reduction in poverty, extraordinary economic growth, the transformation of the lives of the people, an economy to match that of America - who would have thought in 1950 that the economy of a former semi-colony, virtually stagnant for the best part of two centuries, could have reached such a point in, historically speaking, the blink of an eye?

When we think of modernization, we think, probably more than anything else, of technology. When we recall Britain's Industrial Revolution, we remember the steam engine and railways. China's remarkable technological advances - WeChat, high-speed rail, 5G, space exploration, quantum computing, AI and its electric cars that are about to take the world by storm - are a source of great pride not only for China but the whole developing world, a demonstration of what can be achieved. And, of course, they are the compelling evidence that China now stands on the verge of becoming the world's technological leader.

But modernization is about much more than economics and technology. Let us return to what Western modernization meant for the world. It paved the way for colonialism, it divided the world into two, one part very small and rich, the other very large and poor. Chinese modernization promises something very different. While the West colonized large tracts of the world, China, in contrast, offers them a win-win relationship and the Belt and Road Initiative. Or take global governance. The Western-made world is a minoritarian world, a global order dominated by a small oligarchy of rich countries in the G7 representing little more than 12 percent of the world's population. For the first time in modern history, we can now see the possibility of a majoritarian form of global governance based first and foremost on the peoples of the developing countries, including, of course, China, which together account for over 85 percent of the world's population. Such a prospect would have been unimaginable in 1950, let alone 1900. While the Age of the West was the Age of the Small Minority, the Age of China will be the Age of the Great Majority. The whole world will be enfranchised.

But it will mean much more than that. There will be a new kind of respect for countries and cultures. Countries will be encouraged to pursue their own path based on their own distinctive history. Western modernization required them to follow a Western path and pursue a Western-style modernity. One of the tragedies of colonialism (and neo-colonialism, indeed) was that it sought to undermine, eliminate, and destroy the indigenous traditions, customs, and practices of those who were colonized. In the process, much of the history and continuity of these societies was lost. The present-day Western hostility to the idea of civilization is because the very term is testament to, and an acknowledgement of, independence and difference, which the West sought to excise in the name of modernization and Westernization. On the contrary, civilizations and civilizational difference need to be recognized, honored, and respected in the manner articulated in China's Global Civilization Initiative. China as a civilization-state has a deep understanding of the value of civilizational difference.

It seems highly likely that the era of Chinese modernization will coincide with a dramatic new phase of technological innovation which will transform the world in ways far greater than anything we have ever seen in the past across a range of fields from artificial intelligence to medical science. While the potential dangers and pitfalls are many, the future holds huge hope for humanity.

The author is a visiting professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a senior fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. Follow him on Twitter @martjacques. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn 

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Wednesday 16 November 2022

China, US should chart right course for ties, push relations back to healthy, stable track; Compared with China, US has little resonance in developing world

 

 

Some high-stakes diplomacy already in motion, ahead of the key G20 summit that kicks off tomorrow (Nov 15) in Bali. Leaders of the world's two biggest superpowers have been meeting face-to-face. Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden have stressed the need to manage their differences and avoid conflict between their nations. 


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Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with U.S. President Joe Biden upon request in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022. Photo: Xinhua

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with US President Joe Biden upon request in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022. Photo: Xinhua

 

Xi, Biden meet as world seeks more certainties

Current state of China-US relations is not in the fundamental interests of the two countries and peoples, and is not ...

Chinese President Xi Jinping, during meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday in Bali, Indonesia, said they should chart the right course for the development of bilateral relations and push bilateral ties back to the track of healthy and stable development.

Xi said during the meeting that China and the US have braced winds and rains in their more than 50 years of engagement, from the establishment of diplomatic relations until today. There have been gains and losses, experience and lessons. History is the best textbook and China and the US should take history as a reference and look to the future.

The current situation of China-US relations does not conform to the interests of the two countries and their peoples, now does it conform to the expectations of the international community, Xi said.

As leaders of two major countries, we should hold the helm and find the right direction for the development of bilateral relations and push ties to improve. Politicians should think about both their own country's development path and how to get along with other countries and the world, said Xi.

As leaders of two major countries, we should find the right way. Politicians should think about both their own country's development path and how to get along with other countries and the world, said Xi.

Xi noted the changes of the times are unfolding in an unprecedented way and human society is facing unprecedented challenges, and the world is at a crossroads. We care, and all countries in the world care about where they are going.

The international community expects China and the US to handle our relations well. Our meeting today has attracted worldwide attention. We should work together with other countries to inject hope for world peace, confidence in global stability and momentum for collective development, Xi said.

He expressed willingness to continue candid and in-depth exchanges with the US president on strategic issues in China-US ties and key global and regional issues.

Xi said he looks forward to working with the US president to push bilateral relations back on the track of healthy and stable development so as to benefit both countries and the world.

The two leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be held in Indonesia on Tuesday and Wednesday. Xi told Biden that though the two leaders have remained in communication via video-conferences, phone calls and letters, none of these can really take the place of face-to-face exchanges.

President Xi arrived at the island of Bali on Monday afternoon. As a guard of honor paid salutes alongside the red carpet, some local youths in national costume played traditional Indonesian musical instruments, while others performed a traditional Bali dance. Young students cheered in Chinese "Welcome! Welcome!" while waving the Chinese and Indonesian flags, CCTV reported.

According to CCTV, local people also gathered along the roads from the airport to the hotel where Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan were going to stay, waving the Chinese and Indonesian flags to express their warmest welcome on their arrival. 

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 Compared with China, US has little resonance in developing world: Martin Jacques 

 

G20 Indonesia Photo:VCG

G20 Indonesia Photo:VCG

 

The forthcoming G20 meeting reflects both positives and negatives in the current global situation. That it is being held in Indonesia, one of the largest developing countries, sends a positive signal to the world. As does the fact that ASEAN, of which it is a member, is non-aligned, opposed to blocs, and hugely engaged with China. But then there are the negatives. The US, supported by its closest allies, could seek to hijack the meeting for an anti-Russian tirade, poisoning the atmosphere and dividing the G20 at a time when the world faces the worst economic outlook since the 2008 financial crisis.

The first G20 summit in Washington DC in 2008 stands in stark contrast. It adopted, with overwhelming support, the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus ever undertaken, thereby averting the worst depression since the 1930s. In contrast to this remarkable display of unity, Bali will be a forceful reminder of how divided the world now is. In 2008, China and the US were on the same page. In 2022, the US now regards China as its sworn enemy. The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden is likely to remind us of this.

Although the US has hitherto refrained from calling the present US-China relationship a cold war, this is patently the American playbook. The aim is to contain and isolate China, to undermine its links with the rest of the world, and thereby reverse the tide of China's rise. The attempt to cut China off from American semi-conductor technology is the latest example. Be that as it may, the US is finding it far more difficult to isolate China than it anticipated. The world is very different from what it was during the Cold War when it was divided into two hostile and hermetically sealed blocs.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a very good example of how things have changed. The US sought to erect an economic blockade around Russia by means of economic sanctions. Europe went along with this but most of the world did not, a classic example being India. Economic sanctions haven't worked in the way intended. If the US can't economically isolate Russia, then there is zero chance that it could isolate China, which, as the world's largest trading nation, is hugely more important to the global economy than Russia.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict proved to be a highly successful recruiting sergeant in Europe for a closer US-Europe relationship. Since the end of the Cold War, there had been a gradual process of distancing between Europe and the US. This now came to a screeching halt, replaced by a new enthusiasm for the Atlantic alliance, combined with increased hostility toward China, with China and Russia portrayed as identical. But, in a crucial intervention, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently spelt out the importance of China to Germany's future. He went to China and met with Xi, the first Western leader to do so since the pandemic. He publicly rejected the idea of decoupling.

He then reaffirmed Germany's opposition to dividing the world into rival blocs. This goes against the grain of post-Ukraine trends in Europe, exemplified by Britain, the US' ever-willing and reliable lapdog. Scholz has drawn a line and indicated an important degree of continuity with Angela Merkel's previous approach to China. It will be interesting, in this context, to hear what French President Emmanuel Macron says in Bali during his meeting with Xi. The signs are that Europe's commitment to strategic autonomy has not been erased, but is now being quietly reasserted, that its relationship with China will continue to grow, and that it will keep its distance from America's cold war aspirations.

Europe will remain an important weathervane of geopolitical alignments. But, however autonomous it might or might not become, it will, for manifold reasons, tend to lean toward America. ASEAN is very different from Europe, but at least as important. It is a template for a new kind of international order. With extraordinary skill, it has managed to remain aloof from US-China divisions, pursue relations with both, while, given its regional proximity to China, being transformed by China's economic rise. It is the most interesting example of how a group of countries can negotiate a new kind of close and harmonious relationship with China. The US has wisely sought to develop a closer relationship with ASEAN, but, barring a huge misstep by China, it will never displace China's importance for them.

So what does the future hold? America will not be able to contain China. The latter will remain deeply connected with the world. China's greatest strength is the close relationship it has built with the developing world. America's alliance system, in contrast, dates back to the postwar world. It is rooted in the past. It is composed essentially of a bunch of declining developed countries, mainly European, plus Japan, Canada, and Australia. Compared with China, the US has little resonance in the developing world. This is an enormous strategic weakness. These are some of the parameters which will shape the future. How that future might actually evolve in practice, of course, is another matter. We live in very unpredictable times.

The author was until recently a senior fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. He is a visiting professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a senior fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. Follow him on twitter @martjacques. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn 

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 G20 Photo:VCG
Xi urges inclusive global development, warns against bloc confrontation at G20 summit

Speaking at the G20 Leaders' Summit in Bali, Indonesia on Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for unity and inclusive ...

 
 

Wednesday 7 September 2022

Liz Truss takes over a Britain in decline and in severe crisis: Martin Jacques

 

Liz Truss delivers a speech at an event to announce the winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest in central London on September 5,2022. Photo: AFP



Liz Truss is the new British Prime Minister. She beat her Conservative rival Rishi Sunak by tacking strongly to the right. No doubt the fact that she is white, and Sunak is brown, was also a major factor for the 170,000 overwhelmingly white Conservative Party members who voted. If Truss is to be taken at her word, she will be the most right-wing prime minister since Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.

Each of the last four Conservative prime ministers has been more right-wing than their predecessor: in chronological order, David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss. Truss wants to cut taxes, doesn't like the state, is hostile to redistribution, believes in trickle-down economics (that feathering the nests of the rich will ultimately help the poor), and is an anti-China hawk.

In being true to her beliefs, however, she faces a gargantuan problem. She is confronted with the worst economic crisis of any British prime minister since 1945. It is impossible to find any good news on the economic front. As a result of the war in Ukraine, the price of natural gas, which is the main source of domestic heating, is five times what it was a year ago and is predicted to carry on rising steeply. Without state intervention to hold down energy prices, around half the population will this winter be impoverished.

Inflation, which for most of this century has been at around 2 percent, is already at 11 percent, and is predicted to rise to 20 percent. Interest rates, which have similarly been very low, are rising rapidly, meaning much higher mortgage payments for homeowners. The Bank of England forecasts that the country will go into recession towards the end of this year, and some believe that it will continue until 2024.

With inflation now in double figures, workers are finding they are facing wage increases that are less than half the increase in prices: as a result, they are confronted with the prospect of sharply declining real wages over the next several years. There is growing industrial unrest which is likely to become increasingly widespread over the next year.

This is not just a short-term problem. Real wages are now just below the level they were in 2007, on the eve of the Western financial crisis. In other words, the British economy has been stagnating for the last 15 years and in the process has been falling behind its near neighbours Germany and France. One major think-tank is predicting that over the next two years Britain will experience the largest fall in average real incomes for over one hundred years.

It is inconceivable that Truss can tackle this nightmare scenario by cutting taxes, rolling back the state, and turning a blind eye to the poorest sections of the community. This will require state intervention and redistribution on the scale of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, otherwise the Conservative Party will surely lose the next general election in 2024. Truss faces a major dilemma: take the right-wing ideological route and court electoral disaster or follow a pragmatic road and swallow her ideological principles.

Even before the coming economic tsunami, there was a mood of frustration and dislocation, a feeling that the country no longer worked properly. Far from ushering in a new era of prosperity and efficiency, Brexit has become synonymous with labour shortages in many parts of the economy. This has been accentuated by the impact of COVID-19 which continues to disrupt the economy, most obviously in the form of chronic labour shortages in many sectors. Britain's most-loved institution, the National Health Service, is now on life-support, a result of being starved of money for many years and an increasingly chronic shortage of staff.

It is important to emphasise that Britain is now in a much inferior position than it was in 1979 when Thatcher first came to power. This is a weakness it shares more generally with the West and especially Western Europe. The Soviet bloc aside, the West for the most part dominated the world during the 1980s. Its influence and hinterland, however, are now much reduced because of the rise of China together with that of the developing world. A topical example will suffice to illustrate the point. Is the present spike in oil and gas prices, which are costing Western Europe dearly, a permanent or temporary phenomenon? It looks very likely that it will be the former, that Western Europe will be permanently disadvantaged, because Russia has found new markets, notably India and China, for its oil. Western Europe enjoys less economic power in the world and its room for manoeuvre has contracted. This is what being part of the declining part of the world means.

Finally, what will Truss mean for Britain's relations with China? There is no reason for optimism. Truss thinks of herself as a cold war warrior. She has strongly hinted that China will be designated a "threat" to national security and treated in the same way as Russia. The golden age in the relationship between Britain and China came to an end around five years ago and there is precious little chance of it returning for a long time to come. 

By Martin Jacques


Born1945 (age 73–74)
Coventry, England, Great Britain, U.K
NationalityBritish
EducationKing Henry VIII School, Coventry
Alma materUniversity of Manchester (B.A.)
University of Cambridge (PhD)
OccupationEditor, academic, author
WebsiteMartinJacques.com
By Martin Jacques@martjacques

The author was until recently a senior fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. He is a visiting professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a senior fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. Follow him on twitter @martjacques. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn 

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While sowing discord around China, the US is heading to be a 'failing state' OTHER


China state-affiliated media 
#Taiwan island is a province of #China. What does the #US mean by “defense” ? : China will firmly strike back against acts undermining China's sovereignty and security: Chinese FM commented after US claimed the arms sale to Taiwan was for defensive purposes.

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Tuesday 2 February 2021

Why Europe gravitates away from US to Eastern power center: Martin Jacques

 


What will happen to Europe? Will it continue with a broadly pro-American orientation, or will it pursue an increasingly independent position?

Either way, the consequences will be far-reaching. At the heart of the West lie the US and Europe. If Europe seeks a more autonomous role, then the West will be seriously weakened.

The end of the Cold War marked a major moment in US-Europe relations. Europe was no longer dependent on the US for its defense and ever since, slowly but remorselessly, a growing distance has opened up between them. This was accelerated by two key events ̶ the US invasion of Iraq, opposed by most Europeans, and the Donald Trump phenomenon, which most Europeans found beyond the pale.

President Joe Biden wants to mend the fences and return to something closer to the pre-Trump relationship. He may have some success because, unlike Trump, Biden will seek to befriend rather than castigate Europe. But there will be no simple return to the pre-Trump era: too much has happened, too much has changed.

A recent opinion poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations across 11 European countries reveals what can only be described as a sea-change in European attitudes in the post-Trump era. Six in 10 Europeans believe that the US political system is broken and that China will become a stronger power than the US in the next10 years. A majority now want their country to remain neutral in any conflict between the US and China.

A majority of Germans believe that, after voting for Trump in 2016, Americans can no longer be trusted; across Europe likewise more people agreed than disagreed with this statement. The survey grouped the respondents into four categories. The smallest, 9 percent of the total, believed that the EU was broken and the US would bounce back. A second group, around 20 percent of the total, believed that both the US and the EU would continue to thrive. A third group, 29 percent of the total, thought that both the US and the EU were broken and declining. A fourth group, 35 percent of the total, believed that the EU was healthy, but the US was broken. The latter two groups, almost two-thirds of the total, expected that the US would soon be displaced by China.

There has clearly been a profound shift in European attitudes consequent upon the decline of the West since the 2008 financial crisis, the Trump presidency and the rise of China. These, we must remind ourselves, are very recent developments which have happened with remarkable speed. Far from reinforcing the Atlantic alliance and the relationship with the US, their main impact on Europeans has been to weaken those bonds, elicit a growing acknowledgement that the world has changed profoundly and foster a belief that Europe needs to be more independent. Of course, these trends are still young and fluid. Many conflicting forces are at work with attitudes ebbing and flowing both within and between countries. Criticism of China has grown apace in the recent period in Europe, as it has in the US. But there is one fundamental difference. While the US is bent on defending its global primacy, Europe long ago abandoned any such pretensions, thereby greatly reducing the sources of friction and animosity between it and China in comparison with the US.

The survey reveals that by far the dominant trend is toward a more independent-minded Europe, a growing skepticism about the US and a sign of recognition that China will soon become the dominant power in the world. The European leader who most symbolizes this outlook, and has pioneered this way of thinking, is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The recently agreed EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, very much in Merkel's image, is a powerful demonstration of the EU's willingness to pursue its own independent relationship with China rather than following the Americans.

The trend toward a growing distance between Europe and the US will be slow, tortuous, conflict-riddled, and painful. Europe has looked westward across the Atlantic ever since Christopher Columbus. It was European settlers who colonized Northeast America and subsequently established the US. The latter was a European creation which over time was to outperform its ancestral continent. If Europe colonized much of the world, the post-1945 world order was a Western creation, with the US the dominant partner and Europe very much a junior partner. In sum, an enormous historical, intellectual, political and cultural hinterland binds the US and Europe together. But we are now in new territory. American decline means that it has increasingly less to offer Europe.

The gravitational pull of China, and Asia more generally, is drawing Europe eastward. Nothing illustrates this phenomenon better than the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative. Slowly but surely, bit by bit, Europe is becoming more and more involved ̶ first the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, then Portugal, Greece and Italy, and others over time will in all likelihood follow. What drew Europe westward is now drawing it eastward: the centre of gravity of the global economy, once in the west, is now in the east.

The author was until recently a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. He is a Visiting Professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a Senior Fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. Follow him on twitter @martjacques. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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Europe goes its own way on China


EVER since Joe Biden won the US presidency, the rhetoric from Europe’s leaders has been filled with anticipation of a new transatlantic dawn. With Donald Trump out of the White House, Europe signalled that it would again link arms with America, bound by common ideals and a firm resolve to “save the world from its bad angels”. 


“The United States is back. And Europe stands ready,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had declared on Biden’s inauguration day. 

But given the opportunity in recent weeks to show the Biden administration it was serious about geostrategic collaboration, Europe opted instead to “show Washington the finger”, said Politico.


According to the political journal, a consensus has emerged among transatlantic strategic thinkers in recent years that the West faces two major threats to its security: old nemesis Russia and China, the global power the US sees as the much greater challenge over the long term. 


As White House press secretary Jen Psaki said: “Beijing is now challenging our security, prosperity and values in significant ways that require a new US approach.”

But Europe appears to have its own ideas, as seen in how the regional bloc has continued to pursue its own course on China in the face of American reservations. 


In late December, for example, the European Union agreed to a landmark investment pact with China, ignoring objections from across the Atlantic and requests from the Biden camp to hold off until the new administration was in office. 


Then at the the Davos World Economic Forum last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected calls for Europe to pick sides between the US and China, in a nod to the plea made by Chinese President Xi Jinping a day earlier.


While Biden is looking to group together democracies to contain China, Merkel was pointedly wary about the formation of factions.


“I would very much wish to avoid the building of blocs,” said Merkel. “I don’t think it would do justice to many societies if we were to say this is the United States and over there is China and we are grouping around either the one or the other. This is not my understanding of how things ought to be.”

 

Referring to Xi’s speech at the same forum, Merkel said: “The Chinese president spoke yesterday, and he and I agree on that. We see a need for multilateralism.”


Merkel is far from alone in Europe in not wanting to join a more robust US approach toward Beijing. Paris and Rome broadly share Merkel’s position. 


On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Merkel’s statement that the EU shouldn’t gang up on China with the US, even if it stands closer to Washington by virtue of shared values.


“A situation to join all together against China, this is a scenario of the highest possible conflictuality. This one, for me, is counterproductive,” Macron said during a discussion broadcast by Washington-based think tank the Atlantic Council.


This kind of common front against China risks pushing Beijing to lower its cooperation on issues like combating climate change, added the French president.


Macron was the first European leader to make it a point to engage with China as a European bloc by including Merkel and then-EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker during a bilateral visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to France in March 2019.


Macron and European partners didn’t share the Trump administration’s outwardly aggressive stance on China, instead theorising that it was at once a “partner, competitor and systemic rival.”


And now it looks like they do not want to go back to the “old normal” either, where US led in the us-versus-them global politics.


Whether Europe’s decision to effectively de-couple from the US foreign policy agenda before Biden’s administration has really even begun is born out of a desire to achieve the dream of “strategic autonomy,” concern that Donald Trump could return in four years, or some combination thereof may not matter in the end. 


As the strategic rivalry between the US and China comes into focus, Europe is adamant to stay on the sidelines and remain neutral. – Agencies

 

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Saturday 25 May 2019

Why does the West fail to understand China? The West misreads, China is rising, said Cambridge Prof

https://youtu.be/oiGm2E8BaC4


Martin Jacques
Martin Jacques (2012)
Born1945 (age 73–74)
Coventry, England, Great Britain, U.K
NationalityBritish
EducationKing Henry VIII School, Coventry
Alma materUniversity of Manchester (B.A.)
University of Cambridge (PhD)
OccupationEditor, academic, author
WebsiteMartinJacques.com


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Friday 28 September 2012

Fearful of China's rise?

PETALING JAYA: China may overtake the United States as the biggest economic power in the next four to six years but this does not mean that it will instantly become the world's superpower, says a leading expert on China.

Dr Martin Jacques, 67, author of the global bestseller When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, said it would take several decades, from between 2030 and 2040, before it could even achieve developed state status.

“It'd be a long way to go as a superpower,” he said at a talk on “China As Global Superpower: What It Means For Asia and The World”, hosted by the Asian Centre for Media Studies, based in Menara Star.

The second edition of his book was released recently and 40% of its content was new.

“This includes an extensive chapter analysing events after the 2008 financial crisis,” he said.

Expert on China: Dr Jacques presenting a talk hosted by the Asian Centre for Media Studies at Menara Star.
 
His first was shortlisted for two major literary awards.

Dr Jacques said Westerners were fearful of China's rise due to scant knowledge and understanding of China and that it was a communist country.

They fear the country might throw its weight and its military power around.

However, Dr Jacques pointed out that China had no major interest in developing military power after Deng Xiaoping took over the country from the late 1970s to 1990s.

On fears that a communist country was not democratic, he argued that being democratic had not stopped Europeans from conquering others.

“Although China has a lot of problems now, it doesn't mean that it can't be humane and more democratic,” said Dr Jacques.

“Maybe, it will develop universal suffrage without following the Western way.”

Dr Jacques pointed out that the China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank gave loans of more than US$110bil (RM338.415bil) to other developing countries in 2009 and 2010 while the World Bank only made loan commitments of US$100.3bil (RM307.65bil).

Dr Jacques, a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the London School of Economics (University of London), visiting professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, and Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC, was the former editor of Marxism Today, deputy editor of The Independent and a co-founder of the think tank Demos.



Fresh insight on China

PETALING JAYA: China continues to grab world headlines and dominate international news for many reasons. The world's second largest economy is now expected to be the biggest in only a few years, with many far-reaching implications to follow.

World-renowned author and academic Dr Martin Jacques (pic) will be presenting a fresh look at the new China in a talk at Menara Star in Petaling Jaya at 2pm on Thursday.

His talk titled “China As Global Superpower: What It Means For Asia and The World” is hosted by the Asian Center for Media Studies, based at Star Publications (M) Bhd.

Dr Jacques is the author of the global bestseller When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, which has been translated into 11 languages, shortlisted for two major literary awards and described as the best book on China in many years.

To keep track of the rapid changes in China, Dr Jacques has just released the second edition of his book, incorporating the latest data and an extended analysis which includes a new section.

The discussant for the talk will be Dr Lee Poh Ping, a Senior Research Fellow in the Institute of China Studies at Universiti Malaya.

Dr Lee has written and published extensively on East Asian affairs and presented university seminars on Dr Jacques' work.

The talk will be moderated by The Star's associate editor Bunn Nagara.

The event at the Cybertorium in Menara Star is open to the public free of charge, with no registration required

 The Star/Asia News Network