MH370 kin still searching for answers, seven years on, missing plane’s fate remains a mystery

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Seven years may have passed since the fateful day Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 vanished, yet loved ones of those onboard are still struggling to cope with the loss.

This was the sentiment shared by Grace Nathan, 31, whose mother Anne Daisy, was among the 239 people on board the aircraft that vanished while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in 2014.

Grace said many of them were still waiting for closure.

“Some continue to wait and some have not accepted that their loved ones may not be coming home, ” she said while hosting the 7th Annual Remembrance Event for Missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 by ‘Voice370’ yesterday.

While some could have accepted the reality of not seeing their loved ones again, Grace said, they all had a longing for answers.

“There is still this undying need or desire to know what happened to them so that we can understand why they are not coming home ever, ” she added.

Her mother Anne, 56, an executive with a learning and development firm, was on her way to to visit her husband, Department of Civil Aviation official VPR Nathan, 58, who had been posted to the Chinese capital.

There were also families of passengers from China, who were likewise struggling to cope, she said.

“A group of elderly next-of-kin are still looking for answers. They have been going to the MAS office every day for the last seven years to ask for updates, ” Grace said.

She said counselling should be provided to these families in China, to help them cope with their emotional anguish.

Grace also reiterated the request of families of those missing for the Malaysian government to release military radar data of Flight MH370 on March 7 and 8,2014.

“The data could be released on a non-disclosure basis to independent experts, ” she said, adding that individuals or governments with information should also come forward to help solve the mystery.

On a separate matter, independent expert Mike Exner yesterday said debris that likely came from MH370 was found washed along the beach in Jeffreys Bay, South Africa, sometime between August and September last year.

He said the debris – part of an aircraft’s wing – had been handed over to the South African authorities.

Meanwhile, Transport Minister Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong said Malaysia would take any reasonable effort to continue the search for MH370, in cooperation with China and Australia.

“We aspire towards closure as much as the families and friends.

“In the search for MH370, the governments of Malaysia, Australia and China have spared no expenses and resources in the collective effort to locate MH370.

“Our shared aim was always to find the aircraft and get the answers, ” he said in a special message to the next-of-kin during the virtual event.

Dr Wee said that the MH370 tragedy could never be forgotten and yesterday’s event was held in solemn remembrance and with prayers for those who were on board the plane.

“For many, the passage of time these seven years has not softened the painful memory of this tragedy, ” he added.

MH370 was on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew on board when it disappeared from radar.

Investigators deduced that the aircraft had veered thousands of kilometers off course before crashing into the Indian Ocean.

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Seven years on, missing plane’s fate remains a mystery

 

MH370: Seven years on still no closure

 We've found it! Experts say they have located MH370 crash site

 

KUALA LUMPUR: Yesterday marked the seventh anniversary of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370’s mysterious disappearance while on a scheduled flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

How and why a sophisticated Boeing 777 carrying 227 passengers of different nationalities and 12 crew members vanished from the radar screen without a trace remain a mystery despite an extensive search.

In remembering the ill-fated flight, Bernama revisited the incident and interviewed some of the next of kin in Malaysia who were disappointed with the lack of closure on the tragedy.

“I feel exactly like how it was seven years ago when I was 17...things are pretty much the same but we are doing okay, ” said the daughter of Andrew Nari, the chief steward on the flight.

The brother-in-law of Goh Sock Lay, the chief stewardess on board, said the family did not want to talk about the incident as they felt sad each time they recalled it.

Family members of some passengers have moved on and feel there is nothing more to talk about.

Even conspiracy theories have abated.

The initial theories – such as hijacking and diversion of the plane to a US military base on the Diego Garcia atoll, seizure of control of the aircraft from the pilots via remote methods and catastrophic systems or airframe failure – have yet to be proven.

But the aircraft’s flaperon, which washed up on a beach on Reunion Island a year later, pointed to the fact that the Indian Ocean may be the final resting place of Flight MH370.

However, there is no way to pinpoint the exact resting place of the wreck in the vast ocean.

Until the plane is found and the enigma of its disappearance is deciphered, MH370 will continue to be an aviation mystery. — Bernama

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Medicines for ailing MAS: losses RM2bil, 6,000 job cuts, RM6bil capital injection a bailout?

New medicine for ailing MAS

FOR the first time ever, a government-linked company (GLC) will lay off workers and renegotiate contracts with suppliers and employees – a move that will obliterate the view that companies owned by the Government provide steady employment and are safe paymasters.

In its strongest action to rehabilitate the ailing Malaysia Airlines (MAS), the Government has given its undertaking to its investment arm, Khazanah Nasional Bhd, with the necessary legislation to bring the employees and suppliers to the negotiation table.

This is among the highlights of a 12-point plan unveiled by Khazanah yesterday to resuscitate MAS.

To recap, Khazanah, in a bid to save MAS, has proposed to take it private and delist it by year-end. It has a 69% equity in MAS and has offered to buy the remaining 31% in the airline at 27 sen a share.

A new Bill called the MAS Act will be tabled in Parliament before July next year to facilitate the migration of MAS’ existing operations into a new company (Newco), which will take over MAS’ operations on July 1 next year.

“The MAS Act is to facilitate the migration of the existing operations to a Newco. It is something that was proposed by the Government so that a new airline can take over. It will have a finite life,” Khazanah managing director Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar told the media yesterday.

“The Government will allow the transfer of the AOC (air operator’s certificate) and tax losses to the Newco.”

Apart from the establishment of a Newco to carry on the business of the existing airline, the plan calls for the conversion of some debt into equity and Khazanah injecting RM6bil more into the airline. Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP) agreed to swap its RM750mil existing perpetual sukuk with ordinary equity, meaning that it will eventually become shareholder in MAS.

 

Azman: 'The MAS Act is to facilitate the migration of the existing operations to a Newco'.

Of the RM6bil, a sum of RM1.4bil is for the privatisation of MAS, RM1.6bil for cost incurred in shutting down the existing company and a voluntary separation scheme to reduce the workforce by 6,000 and penalties for early termination of contracts with suppliers, and RM3bil for working capital for the Newco to take over the operations.

Since taking over MAS in 2001 from Tan Sri Tajudin Ramli, Khazanah has injected more than RM7bil into MAS, which Azman does not think would be recoverable.

However, he is confident that the RM6bil capital that will be pumped in can be recovered.

“We have done the financial modelling and are confident that the money can be recovered,” he said.

“Also, it is a conditional injection of funds, meaning that the money will only be available subject to the MAS management fulfilling the conditions set out in the recovery plan.”



Azman admits that renegotiating contracts with suppliers, leasing agents and converting debt to equity could have some effect on the credit ratings of MAS and other companies within the stable of the strategic investment fund.

However, he opines that the shedding of the workforce and the renegotiations of contracts is only to bring about a significant change in work practices and supply contracts.

“It would not be done arbitrarily. There is some bench-marking on the pricing of the contracts. The suppliers will be given an option to migrate to the Newco on new terms,” he said.



Azman is also confident that the new MAS will achieve profitability by the end of 2017. The new plan will also see net gearing reduced from 290% now to about 100% -125% eventually.

But not many share Azman’s sentiments, as MAS has undertaken half a dozen restructuring exercises over the past 13 years and yet remains in dire straits.

“I obviously do not share the same sentiments as Azman and am not as optimistic about seeing a profit in 2017. I don’t think the new plan goes far enough to resolve the structural problems within the airline. You can call it downsizing or rightsizing, and the plan may appear bold and courageous by slashing 6,000 jobs, but the question is: how much can you actually save from that?” Shukor Yusof, an analyst with Malaysia-based aviation consultancy Endau Analytics, asks.

He says, “The real issue in MAS the past decade is an ill-conceived strategy and financial mismanagement. That’s the key contributors to the losses, shareholder value destruction and the mess built up over the years. While I do agree that MAS is overstaffed, resulting in low productivity levels compared to Singapore Airlines (SIA) or Cathay Pacific, it is not a critical aspect of the overall picture. The losses registered over the years by the airline are not because the airline is overstaffed, but because it had a management which, unfortunately, had little understanding of the airline industry and was slow to adapt to the dynamics of the landscape of the industry,” Shukor says.

Route rationalisation 

MAS has been loss-making for the past 10 quarters, and the amount has ballooned since the two tragedies hit the airline within a space of four months since March this year. The first was on March 8 when a plane, MH370 en route to Beijing, disappeared.

The second was on July 17 when MH17, which was on the way from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down while flying over Ukraine.

Even before the first airline tragedy on March 8, the airline was already losing close to RM1bil a year due to competition from low-cost carriers and Middle-Eastern full-service carriers (FSCs).

However, the losses exacerbated to RM2bil following the airline tragedies.

For the second quarter of 2014, MAS announced on Thursday an RM307mil net loss, bringing its first-half losses to RM750mil.

 

A lack of demand and the massive cancellations of flights has become a norm after the two incidents, and the policy to refund passengers after the MH17 mishap has further seen flight bookings going down. The airline’s strategy of pushing for loads at the expense of yields has also backfired. However, it has embarked on a new plan to drop fares to win back customers, a strategy which, however, does not guarantee high yields, which MAS needs.

MAS’ current yield of 20 sen per seat kilometre is lower than Cathay Pacific’s 24 sen and SIA’s 22.9 sen.

Azman says there are several conditions for the money to be injected into MAS.

Among them is route rationalisation, whereby the emphasis is on destinations that are within eight hours of flying time. The plan is also to bring short-haul cost within the 15% of the low-cost carrier competition, at parity with Middle-Eastern FSCs and below those of the regional FSC competition. The Newco will only focus on profitable routes and secure global connectivity via oneworld and other alliances, says Khazanah, adding that MAS will come up with a business plan and fleet requirements.

Maybank Investment Bank senior analyst Mohshin Aziz says that with one-third of the jobs going, the route network also needs to be reduced by one-third.

“We were hoping to get the details of the route cuts, but they were not forthcoming. We really believe MAS should terminate its long-haul routes, such as Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris, Istanbul and even Dubai as soon as possible.

“They need to reduce frequencies on their Australian routes to twice daily from thrice daily now, and terminate the Brisbane and Adelaide routes,” Mohshin says.

Since the network will be reconfigured, MAS will also have to reduce the number of aircraft it flies from its current fleet of 127 to bring down cost.

Khazanah says MAS needs to renew its focus on revenue management to increase unit revenue by 10% to 15%, and among other things, it needs to also unbundle ancillary products and services and revamp its loyalty programme.

Staff buy-in

A major part of the success of Khazanah’s new plan for MAS hinges on the support of the airline’s employees and their unions. Yesterday, Azman met representatives of the unions to tell them of the new plan, but will the unions support the plan?

A major part of the success of Khazanah's new plan for MAS hinges on the support of the airline's employees and their unions.

“It was a good and frank discussion. I think we were at pains to try and explain what would be happening. And explain that the vessel of the Newco will not be able to carry everybody,” Azman says.

Throughout the day, Khazanah officials and MAS senior team members had various briefing sessions with its employees.

For now, the ties are somewhat strained between the senior team and many of the unions and their members, with many worried about the selection process of who would be axed.

Under the new plan, MAS will undertake a voluntary separation scheme to reduce its workforce to 14,000, with the plan also involving reskilling, redeployment and job creation.

“There seems to be a renewed effort to harmonise now so that Khazanah’s vision of rebuilding a national icon will succeed. But at a glance, the plan is wishy-washy and they are not able to give us details. We are worried as to who will decide on who stays and who leaves. We also do not want the existing team to decide, as there would be no professionalism, only partiality,’’ said a source.

Khazanah says the process of transfer migration and separation will be conducted with “utmost care, fairness and due process”.

A Khazanah official added that “the decision on who stays and who leaves will be done by the Newco”.

“The search for a new chief executive officer (CEO) for the Newco has begun and we are looking at both Malaysian leadership talent and global aviation specialists, basically for the CEO (post),” Azman says.

“Hopefully they will hire the best in the industry and not just anyone for the hot seat. It should be someone with entrepreneurial spirit and expertise to drive profits,’’ says an expert.

The current group CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya will leave MAS in June next year.

The plan to set up a Newco is also seen as a way to weaken MAS’ vociferous unions, although an expert says that the Newco could also set up new unions, provided there are no conditions attached to the Newco’s staff appointment letters.

Would minority shareholders sell out?

The biggest challenge Khazanah will face is whether it can get enough minority shareholders and institutional funds to vote in favour of its plan to privatise MAS at an EGM to be called in the coming weeks.

It needs 100% acceptance to take MAS private, and then there will be grounds for the Act to be established.

Khazanah cannot vote at the EGM, given the fact that it is an interested party and institutional shareholders only hold less than a 4% equity in MAS.

Now that there is a serious plan to resuscitate MAS, it is possible that some minorities may want to hold back and not sell their shares. Not only will MAS be profitable by 2017, but there is also a plan to relist the Newco in 2018-2020.

“There will be some minorities who will give up their shares, as holding MAS has been one painful episode. But there are yet others who may see that there is going to be creation of value in the future. So, why sell and miss out on future growth?” opined a source.

However, if Khazanah fails to get 100% equity in MAS, then the entire revival plan will be off.

By B.K. Sidhu The Star/Asia News Network

Radical plan to revive MAS

Khazanah Nasional Bhd has unveiled a radical plan to revive the ailing Malaysia Airlines that calls for job cuts, a capital injection of up to RM6bil and creation of a new company (Newco) to carry the airline business.

To facilitate the migration of the existing business to Newco, the Government will table a new law in Parliament called the MAS Act.

Khazanah managing director Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar said that the new legislation would have a finite life and was needed to facilitate the migration of the existing business to Newco.

In a move to ensure that Newco has a leaner workforce and cleaner balance sheet to compete effectively in a tough operating environment, Khazanah wants to see job cuts of 30% from the existing MAS workforce of 20,000 employees.

It is one of the many conditions Khazanah has imposed on the management of MAS if it were to inject more funds into the ailing airline.

 

“In our opinion, we think that Newco with its business model will require a workforce of about 14,000. A net reduction of 30% is an across-the-board number,” said Azman at a media briefing yesterday.

The job cuts also affect the top leadership of MAS, which comprises a team of 500 staff called the Extended Leadership Team (ELT). Most of them were holding senior positions with long service.

Azman said the current chief executive officer (CEO) of MAS, Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, has indicated his wish to leave.

In commending the MAS CEO for having led the airline during its toughest period, Azman said Ahmad Jauhari would remain in place until the transition.

“We have embarked on a global search for a new CEO and have engaged an international firm to undertake the task,” he said.

Some of the other conditions of the 12-point plan mapped by Khazanah for the recovery of MAS include the relocation of the airline’s existing headquarters in Subang to the KL International Airport and Khazanah owning 100% of MAS.

Towards this end, Khazanah is undertaking a privatisation of MAS at 27 sen per share.

Azman clarified that Khazanah had engaged a consultancy to undertake a review of MAS on Feb 26 this year, before the first airline tragedy on March 8.

“The review came about after the Government was concerned about the financial and general state of affairs in MAS,” he said.

On March 8, a MAS aircraft en route to Beijing went missing and further exacerbated the airline’s losses.

The Cabinet approved MAS’ proposal on Wednesday and yesterday the various stakeholders, which are mainly the unions, existing airline management and some key directors, were summoned for a briefing.

The management and union have been told to work together to decide the shedding of the workforce, he said.

The MAS Act is expected to arm Khazanah with the necessary bite to carry out the radical measures, especially in negotiating the new contracts and collective agreements of the unions.

“The Act would allow for the Air Operators Certificate (AOC) to be transferred from the existing MAS to Newco and the assets and liabilities,” said Azman.

By July 1 next year, Newco is expected to take off.

Azman said that employees who were not absorbed into Newco would be offered a retrenchment scheme or given an option to be absorbed into a scheme for re-training.

Towards this end, Khazanah is working with three business process outsourcing firms that have vacancies for 3,500.

Azman said Khazanah explored several options in coming up with the plan.

“Putting in more money into MAS would not save MAS. So we felt that enabling MAS to start on a clean slate and putting in new money into Newco provided it met the conditions stated was the best option,” he said. - The Star

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Lots of public funds will be spent to make things right at MAS, and it will start with the RM1.4bil takeover of the airline.

THE events of MH370 and MH17 have soured the operations of Malaysia Airlines (MAS), where the extent of the damage from these events on its financials will be more accurately shown when the airline reports its quarterly figures next week.

While these tragedies have led to MAS’ major shareholder, Khazanah Nasional Bhd, offering to not only take the company private but also undertake what appears to be an exhaustive overhaul of the airline’s operations, the problems at MAS have been simmering for a long time now.

The airline has been losing money for some time, and previous turnaround plans, in hindsight, were akin to applying bandages when major surgery was needed. Previous turnaround plans might have just delayed what needs to be done now.

But all gloves are off with the upcoming overhaul when it comes to salvaging MAS. Political will appears to be there, judging from comments made by the Prime Minister and the airline will undergo a big transformation on how it operates.

Lots of public funds will be spent to make things right at MAS, and it will start with the RM1.4bil takeover of the airline. The overhaul of MAS should be more than just cosmetic or quick fixes.

While the airline’s revenue will surely slump, MAS also has to deal with its cost. As it stands, experts have pointed out that the size of its cost structure is one that supports a far larger network than what MAS currently operates.

Tackling costs won’t be easy also, given that it is a government-linked company (GLC) with social obligations. In fact, MAS, like its other GLC brethren, has commitments that most private companies just don’t have.

Will the overhaul of MAS take into account just how far it needs to go to remove a certain portion of such obligations, and if it is happening in MAS, are other GLCs too shouldering the same kind of burden as MAS is?

It has been long suspected that the airline has been losing lots of money due to leakages and some have even alluded to political interests having their fingers in the pie.

Khazanah should undertake a thorough review of the supply chain, and conduct forensic accounting if needed to ensure corruption is weeded out of the company. MAS needs to make sure that the services and supplies bought are at market rates and of a fair value.

For Khazanah, it needs to revisit its GLC transformation programme and see whether it has been as effective as what the market expected it to be. There has been a series of colourful books and manuals issued, and among them, the red book. Just how far have the initiatives of the red book, which deal with procurement, been successful in reducing costs?

But the need to ensure support for its social obligations can be tough on a GLC. For one, if the contracts given or services and goods acquired are inflated beyond an acceptable amount, then it will just balloon cost. Social obligations that relate to the need for support to help companies grow in scale is understandable, but not handouts.

Even Petroliam Nasional Bhd president and chief executive officer Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas has inferred that there is pressure from Government interference and the need to back vendors that charge quite a bit above market prices.

If such pressure is existent in the national oil company that is different from other GLCs, then one can hypothesise that such pressure is prevalent among GLCs.

There needs to be a balance between social obligations and market value. GLCs cannot go on supporting programmes at inflated costs if the companies they are supporting have not shown improvements or are detrimental to their own well-being. This is because doing so will have a telling effect on the performance of the companies.

Should its costs become inflated as a result of such support, then there could be implications on the performance of the GLCs. For one, investors will make that distinction and attach a lower market multiple for GLC companies compared with its private-sector peers. Some will say that it is already being seen in some GLCs.


By: JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU The Star/Asia News Network

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Malaysia plane carrying 239 people missing, crashed off Vietnam? Malaysian minister denies crash report!

State media: Malaysian plane crashed off Vietnam

 

Malaysia minister denies crash report

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Reports from China's Xinhua news agency say the plane was lost in airspace controlled by Vietnam.

The aircraft did not enter airspace controlled by China and did not make contact with Chinese controllers, Xinhua said.

A report on a Chinese TV network, citing the microblogging website Weibo, said 160 Chinese nationals were on board the flight.

Photo: Relatives of passengers wait for news at Beijing airport. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)

Distressed family members of those on board the flight have also been gathering at Beijing airport.

Chang Ken Fei, a Malaysian waiting at the airport for friends to arrive, said: "I got here at 7:00am. At first I thought the plane was just delayed as normal, so I came a bit later, I've just been waiting and waiting."

"I asked them what was going on but they just tell us, 'we don't know'."

If the plane is found to have crashed, the loss would mark the second fatal accident involving a Boeing 777 in less than a year, after an unblemished safety record since the jet entered service in 1995.

Last year, an Asiana Airlines Boeing 777 crash landed in San Francisco, killing three passengers.

Boeing said it was aware of reports that the Malaysia Airlines plane was missing and was monitoring the situation but had no further comment.

Among previous accidents involving Malaysia Airlines planes, one of the smaller Twin Otter aircraft crashed upon landing in Malaysia's Sabah state on Borneo island last October, killing a co-pilot and a passenger.

And a jet crashed in 1977 in southern Malaysia, killing all 93 passengers and seven crew.

Photo: The plane, a Boeing 777-200, left Kuala Lumpur at 12:41am on Saturday, and had been due to arrive in Beijing at 6:30am local time. (ABC News)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Malaysia Airlines has still not been able to confirm what happened to the flight. The airline has confirmed that there were 4 Americans — 3 adults and one infant — aboard the flight, which also carried Canadians and Australians, and a majority of Chinese and Malay passengers.
 
Malaysia Airlines lost contact with a commercial aircraft bound from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, China, the airline reported Saturday morning.

Flight MH370, a Boeing 777-200ER that was carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew members, was scheduled to land at 6:30 a.m., but lost contact with air traffic control at 2:40 a.m. on March 8. Its whereabouts are unknown.

At 7:24 a.m. local time, the airline posted a message to its Facebook page stating it was working with local search and rescue authorities to find the aircraft, and that it would continue to provide updates. It encouraged the public to contact a number provided for information.

A search for the flight on FlightAware.com showed its status as "result unknown" and included a map that depicted its partially completed route.

Malaysia Airlines VP of operations Fuad Sharuji told CNN's Anderson Cooper that it had tried but "failed to establish any contact" with the plane before he detailed concerns about how much fuel it was carrying.

There were "about seven hours of fuel on board this aircraft and we suspect that by 8:30 this aircraft would have run out of fuel," Faruji said. He added, "At the moment we have no idea where this aircraft is right now."

Kuala Lumpur is the hub for Malaysia Airlines, which services over 60 destinations globally with a heavy presence in Asia, according to its website. The airline told the BBC that it would hold a press conference on the situation later in the day.

According to Reuters, Boeing's 777 had a solid safety record after its 1995 introduction up until last summer's Asiana Airlines crash in San Francisco, Calif.

We will continue to update this post with more information as it arises.

-  mashable.com

MAS shocker: RM2.5 billion biggest-ever loss in its history!

By B.K. SIDHU bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: National carrier Malaysia Airlines Bhd (MAS) posted a shocking RM2.52bil net loss for its financial year ended Dec 31, 2011 the biggest-ever loss in its corporate history led by higher expenses, despite revenue rising 2% to RM13.9bil.

In comparison, the airline reported a net profit of RM234mil for the whole of 2010 and chalked up sales of RM13.58bil.

The RM2.5bil figure for 2011 includes a RM1.09bil provision, essentially a non-cash item, to reflect the state of health at the airline.

“The company is in crisis. The accounts for 2011 recognises provisions and escalating operational costs which, although painful, gives us a holistic snapshot of the organisation,” group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said at the briefing of its results yesterday.

Ahmad says MAS is in crisis and that the accounts for 2011 recognises provisions and escalating operational costs which gives a holistic snapshot of the organisation. On the right is Rashdan.

 

“With full knowledge of our actual position, we will be better prepared to move forward,'' he said.

The non-cash items include RM179mil of stock obsolescence (mostly spares for the B737 aircraft), RM602mil for re-delivery of aircraft (it will return 52 of its leased aircraft and will incur some cost in making sure they are in pre-delivery condition), and RM314mil impairment of freighter aircraft (adjusting the freighters to current market value).

For the full year, the airline's loss per share was 75.52 sen versus earnings per share of 7.25 sen in 2010.

For the fourth quarter, MAS reported a net loss of RM1.28bil and sales of RM3.67bil. But a year earlier, it had reported a net profit of RM225mil and sales of RM3.66bil.

“If you filter all the accounts off the non-cash items, it is a decent performance by MAS given the challenges it is facing,'' said an analyst with Maybank Investment Bank.

He believes that the numbers are slightly better than analysts' estimates.

By stripping out the RM1.09bil provisioning from the net loss of RM2.52bil, the actual loss incurred by the airline for 2011 is RM1.43bil. For the first three quarters of 2011, the airline incurred a net loss of RM1.24bil and with the stripping out of the RM1.09bil, the actual net loss for the fourth quarter is only RM184mil. However, when added with some additional items it should be a net loss of RM231mil for the quarter.

Ahmad said that group expenditure had gone up by 21% mainly due to higher fuel costs. MAS' fuel bill for 2011 swelled by 33%, or RM1.46bil, to RM5.85bil from RM4.38bil a year earlier. Jet fuel prices have risen from US$95 a barrel at the end of 2010 to US$133 at end-2011. Currently, it is hovering around the US$137US$138 per barrel range.

For 2011, MAS saw a 6% improvement in passenger revenue, while yields were up 4% to 24.7 sen per revenue passenger kilometre. But the improvement, according to Ahmad, was insufficient to offset the rising costs, especially fuel.

Bearing in mind that it only has RM1.1bil in cash reserves, and in view of the big number of aircraft deliveries it has to take, MAS is in dire need of more cash.

Ahmad said the next task was to strengthen the balance sheet or else it would be difficult for the airline to get financing for its new deliveries.

“The bottom-line group losses for 2011 underscore the need for MAS to adopt strong measures to stop the bleeding, and they include staff redeployment, increasing productivity and efficiency, relentless cost control and making further route review,'' he said, adding that thus far the airline had implemented 9% route cuts.

In order to strengthen the balance sheet to boost cash reserves and funding capacity, he needs another 60 days to come up with a plan.

“The plan includes, but not limited to, debt and/equity market options. Khazanah Nasional Bhd and Tune Air, the two largest shareholders, are supportive of these initiatives,'' he said.

His deputy Mohammed Rashdan Yusof did not rule out the possibility of a cash call and the selling of non-core assets to raise cash.

Ahmad also disclosed that talks with Qantas were under way but declined to reveal the scope of the talks. MAS will be joining the oneworld alliance by November this year.

Despite the huge losses and funding requirement, Ahmad remains positive on the outlook for the airline, saying “if we follow our business plan, we should be in the black (this year).''  

Lawsuits with Tajudin Ramli, Is it time to settle?

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Is it time to settle?

OPTIMISTICALLY CAUTIOUS By ERROL OH

IT was only this week that most of us found out about the efforts to settle all lawsuits between Tan Sri Tajudin Ramli and several government-linked companies (GLCs), including a few listed entities. According to Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Nazri Abdul Aziz the Government had been mulling over the out-of-court settlement for the past six months. It was reported that Nazri sent a letter to the GLCs this month, informing them that the Government and the Finance Ministry had agreed to settle all civil claims against Tajudin.

However, it appears that the possibility of a “global settlement” of the suits have been floating around for longer than half a year.

Last December, the now delisted DFZ Capital Bhd uploaded on the Bursa Malaysia website a circular by Singapore-listed Esmart Holdings Ltd, which was acquiring a 75% stake in DFZ. In discussing the material litigation of Atlan Holdings Bhd (the vendor in this transaction), Esmart touched on the developments in a particular case and said: “In view of the global settlement in respect of all suits concerning Tan Sri Dato' Tajudin Ramli (TSDTR), the said matter is now fixed for mention on Jan 12, 2011.”

A similar reference “the global settlement in respect of all suits involving TSDTR” popped up in the notes to Atlan's quarterly report for the period ended November last year.

Atlan's legal entanglement with Tajudin is a legacy issue arising from its 2004 purchase of a 32% block of shares in Naluri Corp Bhd from Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd. Tajudin lost control of Naluri following the Asian financial crisis.



A more interesting bit of information surfaced in Axiata Group Bhd's quarterly report for the period ended Dec 31 last year. In providing an update on its material litigation, the company said: “The Court has requested the parties to mediate and TSTDR has proposed a global settlement for all the cases involving TSTDR. The parties have since agreed to mediate the pending disputes.”

Axiata appears to be one of the GLCs whose lawsuits with Tajudin are likely to be withdrawn following the Government's agreement with Tajudin. Khazanah Nasional Bhd is a 39% shareholder of Axiata, whose subsidiary Celcom Axiata Bhd was once among Tajudin's prime businesses.

Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is another former Tajudin asset that's now a part of the Khazanah stable. Not surprisingly, the national carrier too has legal disputes with him. However, to date, MAS has yet to say anything about the change in status of its suits involving Tajudin.

Neither has Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM), which (along with subsidiary Telekom Enterprise Sdn Bhd and 22 others, including Danaharta and Celcom) is a defendant in a counterclaim by Tajudin, who is seeking RM13.4bil, among other things.

So why haven't Atlan, Axiata, MAS and TM made any announcements about the global settlement? Atlan and Axiata have disclosed the development in the notes to their financial statements and quarterly reports, but this is still a step away from highlighting the information.

It has been established that these companies' lawsuits involving Tajudin are indeed material litigation, and Bursa Malaysia's listing requirements include “the commencement of or the involvement in litigation and any material development arising from such litigation” among the examples of events that may require immediate disclosure.

Of course, there's room to argue that the global settlement is very much work in progress, with many details yet to be worked out. However, shouldn't the investing public be alerted when there's a proposed global settlement on the table and it may result in the conclusion of several suits with billions of ringgit at stake?

Nazri was quoted as saying there was no special deal between Tajudin, the Government and the GLCs for the parties to agree to the settlement of the suits. He added that it was up to the parties involved to decide what to do next. “It is their right if they want to proceed with their court case,” he said.

As listed companies, they are obliged to take into account the interests of minority shareholders as well. It's impossible to please every shareholder, for sure, but whatever the decision of each company, the board and the management need to be transparent and consistent, and their rationale ought to be persuasive. If a company decides to drop a lawsuit it has filed, particularly one that seeks to address big losses, it owes shareholders an explanation.

For example, an Axiata subsidiary, Rego Multi-Trades Sdn Bhd, commenced proceedings in 2005 against Aras Capital Sdn Bhd and Tajudin for amounts due to Rego pursuant to an investment agreement with Aras Capital and an indemnity letter given by Tajudin. In turn, Tajudin filed his defence and instituted a counterclaim to void and rescind the indemnity letter and claim damages. Said Axiata in annual report 2010: “The board of directors, based on legal advice received, are of the view that it has good prospects of succeeding on the claim and successfully defending the counterclaim if the same were to proceed to trial.”

Similarly, both TM and Axiata have expressed confidence that they can put up a winning defence against Tajudin's RM13.4bil counterclaim.

Perhaps it's good for everybody or at least, for most people if the Tajudin-related suits are settled out of court. If that's so, the listed companies should have no problems presenting that case to their shareholders.

Executive editor Errol Oh has just realised that we often overlook the listed companies' disclosures on material litigation.

Who will solve MAS’ operational problems?

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The deal with AirAsia reads like the rationalization of the airline industry but does little or nothing for Malaysia Airlines' operations

Image via WikipediaWhile MAS has award-winning products and services, a competitive cost base, and only slightly below average load factors, our yields are dramatically lower than our competitors. – Idris Jala then CEO of MAS in February 2006 before turning around the badly ailing airline within a year.

AT the end of the day, the alliance between Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and AirAsia achieved via share swaps between their major shareholders does nothing by itself to improve MAS’ operations (see our cover story this issue for full details).

In fact a misguided overemphasis on MAS focusing on being a premium full service carrier (FSC) can have dire consequences on its revenue and viability as we shall explain.

What is clear from the figures in the chart is that the national airline has a severe revenue management crisis, which it must solve or perish. The yields broadly track the airline’s operational profits.

The problem with the yield and hence revenue is not the product, for MAS is rated consistently among the top airlines in the world for service.

The problem is not capacity utilisation because seats are on average filled three quarters, despite increases in capacity.

The problem is pricing. Despite a good, and even excellent, product it is not able to price it properly and this is reflected in its yield, which is the revenue per revenue passenger km flown (sen per RPK – the average amount an airline gets for flying a paying or revenue passenger one km.). Hence there are no profits but losses now.



If we look at the RPK in the chart for the first quarter of this year, it is back to what it was in the first quarter of 2006 after Datuk Seri Idris Jala joined MAS in December 2005. Idris’ quote above in February 2006 shortly after he took over is exactly applicable to MAS today, over five years later!

An examination of the chart shows that since Idris came in to MAS in December 2005, MAS had experienced a relentless increase in both RPK as well as revenue per available seat km or RASK (available seat km is a measure of capacity obtained by multiplying seats available by the kms flown and totalling them) up to end-2008.

The increase in RASK at the same time indicates that the seat factor (how much seats are filled, obtained by dividing the RPK by the ASK) or capacity utilisation was maintained at healthy levels.

Maximising revenue is a function of trying to control three key variables – capacity, capacity utilisation and fares. When any one of these increases, revenue increases if the other two at least stay where they are. The ideal is when all three increase simultaneously.

The issue is complex to say the least and is at the heart of the profitability of any airline. Costs, in contrast, are much easier to control and quantify. But in revenue management you need to have a good feel for what price you can charge without affecting capacity utilisation.

For this you need very good people who can feed the right information to some of the most complicated and complex modelling systems in airline operations. And you need to be constantly refining this because the situation changes all the time and from day to day.

Most FSCs like MAS have a basic fare to fill most of their seats. But with an average seat factor of say 75%, one quarter of the seats are empty and wasted if they are not utilised. They target these seats to be sold too, often at lower prices, because they bring in revenue at the margin almost all of which goes straight to profit because it is incremental.

Now here’s the paradox: MAS, like any other FSC, must in areas where the load factor or capacity utilisation is low compete on the back-end or economy class with the low cost carriers (LCCs). Not to do so would make it severely uncompetitive as an airline.

If the flights are likely to be full, MAS should move to higher prices and if they are not, than the airline has to offer discounts – sometimes considerable discounts – to fill up the seats and improve capacity utilisation. The conditions for these seats are like for LCCs – inflexible schedules and early bookings but low price.

The trick is to do this without actually cannibalising your current base customers who are willing to pay a premium for flexibility and full service and to charge a rate the market can bear for the front end – business and first class where demand is not that price sensitive.

Now, lets look at the chart again. MAS’ yields increased steadily and peaked in the fourth quarter of 2008 for a gain of 60% in just three years and exceeding even that of Singapore Airlines, indicating excellent revenue management.

It took a massive dip in 2009 along with other airlines in the aftermath of the global financial crisis which started in the last quarter of 2008. Most airlines recovered after that but MAS did not. Idris left in the third quarter of 2009 to head the Performance Management and Delivery Unit and become a Cabinet minister.

Singapore Airline’s yield in 2009 fell to 25.7 sen per RPK from 31.3 sen per RPK (at current exchange rates), down 18% and MAS’ fell from 32.9 sen per RPK to 23.4 sen by the fourth quarter of 2009, down a massive 29%. But in the first quarter of this year, SIA’s was back up to 29.9 sen per RPKamp;q=22.2783333333,114.158888889%20%28Hong%20Kong%29&t=h" rel="geolocation" title="Hong Kong">Hong Kong, Seoul, Mumbai and Sydney skidded for the fifth consecutive day. Shares in China, Taiwan and South Korea plunged sharply before recovering some ground. All closed nearly 4% lower on Monday. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index had ir />Since this is incremental, it means an operating profit of over RM3bil assuming MAS’ operating profit this year is likely to be less than RM600mil!

That is basically the problem at MAS – its yields have not recovered post the world financial crisis which affected airlines very badly in 2009. If MAS focuses on getting its yield back while keeping costs down, it’s back in business and in a great big way too.

MAS is an airline. The argument that ancillary services will make most of its money is false, although that income is useful. It can and must make money from the airline operations, although there will be cyclical downturns.

The guy (or gal) who will turn MAS around has to understand airline fundamentals and if he has no experience in how pricing affects revenue in the airline world, he must learn pretty fast. And he has to be pretty fixated on costs and have a good eye for market opportunities. Someone like Idris.

Back to the deal. It is good for AirAsia, some of it for good reasons and some for bad reasons. It is good because AirAsia can get routes and compete with MAS on the long, medium and short haul. But bad if the intention is to cut competition through uneconomic means.

MAS should be able and allowed to compete on economic terms with AirAsia in the same way that AirAsia can – the competition must cut both ways. That is the key to a more vibrant airline sector. If MAS can increase its revenue overall and make money by offering cheaper fares on some routes, they must be permitted – and indeed encouraged – to so.

By all means collaborate via common procurement, maintenance, training and the like to bring costs down but allow full economic competition on pricing. Don’t carve the market out rigidly but let the markets overlap on the fringes as they do in reality.

Let MAS be a full service carrier on all sectors but with the liberty to compete on pricing when the economics dictate it. Let AirAsia do its low-cost thing – which it has done so well and with so much benefit for travellers – wherever it wants to and give it access to any route it wants.

Then we have the best of both worlds – the most collaboration to bring down costs with the most competition to keep efficiency up, deliver excellent service and low fares. Then we will truly recognise the three elements in this equation – the two airline groups and the customers without whom the first two don’t exist.

Managing editor P Gunasegaram would like to quote another turnaround man Lee Iacocca, the one who took Chrysler back to profits against all odds sometime back: “In the end, all business operations can be reduced to three words: people, product, and profits.”