The gloomy outlook takes its toll

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What Are We To Do by LIN SEE-YAN

About one-half of European Financial Stability Fund already committed or utilized

WITH every passing day, the shelf-life of eurozone's rescue package is getting shorter. On July 21, eurozone leaders agreed to a second Greek bailout (see Greek Bailout Mark II: It's a Default in this column on July 30, following the first, Greece is Bankrupt on July 2). European parliaments have yet to complete ratification to expand the 440 billion euros bailout fund (European Financial Stability Fund or EFSF). Already, talk has shifted to expanding the EFSF in the light of escalation of the crisis.

Frankly, the fund is just not large enough to halt the contagion. It's a matter of market confidence really the larger, the better. About one-half of the fund is already committed or utilised with more demands coming on. Greece will miss the deficit targets for this year and next despite austerity, showing the drastic steps taken to avert bankruptcy are not enough. The crisis is boiling over. Eurozone ministers have since delayed the release of 8 billion euros cash scheduled for Oct 13, threatening to revisit the deal where private bondholders may be asked to take a higher “haircut”. This has rattled markets and raised fears of an imminent messy default. Estimates are that with a 60% haircut (21% now) for private bondholders, Greek banks would suffer another 27 billion euros write-down, wiping out their capital. Inevitably, the fall-out will have much wider repercussions.

The contagion

The world economy once again stands on a knife's edge. As finance leaders gathered at end-September, they all want to look forward. But markets and investors are forcing them to peer down the precipice into the abyss as growth in advanced economies slackened sharply and emerging nations grappled with inflation in the face of a fast deteriorating eurozone debt crisis, wondering how to make the needed adjustments to restore confidence. Continuing uncertainty and worries about the global economic outlook fuelled a rush into safe assets. The eurozone is seen to be on the brink of recession. Its prospects have been hit by sharp falls in consumer and business confidence as well as fiscal austerity measures across the continent and pessimism about US growth. Germany's slowdown is worrisome because of its role as Europe's powerhouse.

Gathering pessimism came to a head as global equities tumbled on Sept 22 as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) gloomy outlook (“there were significant downside risks to the economic outlook”) caused investors to sell stocks in a widespread flight to safety. UK's FTSE (All World) Index fell by as much as 23% from its May high, signifying a bear market as it fell through the 20% threshold. US and UK stocks were not yet in bear territory but German and French equities have since been there. The sell-off was mooted by a big move into government bonds. Benchmark German 10-year bond yields hit an all-time low of 1.65%, while US Treasuries fell to 1.77%, the lowest level since 1946. On a day reminiscent of 2008, Asian stocks and currencies tumbled reflecting foreign capital repatriation, with the Indonesian stock market plunging 9%, the Australian dollar falling below US dollar parity, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index settling at its lowest point since July '09.



Amid market tumult, investors were left wondering what to do in October. The 3rd quarter had been painful and volatile. The Dow finished the quarter down 12.1%; the S&P's 500 fell 14%. Many had hoped for a 2nd half rebound after spring's “soft-patch”, only to be confronted with worries of a possible double-dip recession. There is also a new fear: weakness in emerging market economies, especially China. During the 3rd quarter, markets were tossed to and fro on a daily (even hourly) basis, reflecting developments in Europe and United States. In August and September, the Dow industrials rose or fell by more than 1% on each of 29 days; on another 15 days, the daily moves were more than 2%. The last time the market saw this was in March/April '09. The “fear index” (Vix volatility index) reflecting market instability was up 160% over the 3rd quarter, finishing at 40% (normal 15%-20%) on end September.

The problem is Europe

The damage was worse in Europe. The main German and French stock indices both lost more than 25% of their value in the 3rd quarter, the largest quarterly loss since 2002. Asian stocks also took a pounding, experiencing double-digit losses. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index lost 21%. Even gold usually the refuge suffered a collapse in September from its record high in August. The safety was in US Treasuries, German bunds and UK gilts. Yields didn't matter for now it's just preservation of capital. As I see it, the sovereign risk crisis is compounded by much weaker growth among the “core” nations, and increasing market stress. In the United States, it has just managed to avoid recession, with little buffer to insulate itself from any fallout from an European event. Complications can also come from a busting bubble in the Chinese property market, rattling Chinese banks with ripple effects on world markets.

US and European stocks tumbled when markets opened in the new 4th quarter, with S&P's 500 entering the bear market as Europe postponed a vital tranche drawing to debt-stricken Greece. Wall Street fell about 2% on Oct 3, extending decline to a 13-month low as investors feared the crisis would lead the United States into a new recession. With this drop, the benchmark S&P's 500 had fallen past 20% putting it in bear territory. In Europe, banking stocks dived as investors slashed their exposure on worries authorities are unable to contain the debt crisis. The Stoxx Europe 600 index tumbled 2.8%, hitting its lowest since Oct '08; Stoxx Europe 600 banks finished 4.3% lower. Euro-zone's problem is one of market confidence rather than solvency. In Asia, most regional markets in the 3rd quarter suffered their biggest falls since the Lehman's collapse in '08, with Tokyo losing 11% and Hong Kong 21%. Since then, Korea dropped 3.6%, Hong Kong another 3.4%, India's Sensex 1.8%, the Nikkei, 1.1% and Australia, 0.6%. Italy's latest downgrade a 3-notch cut by Moody's to A2 with continued negative outlook reflected as much euro-zone's inability to spur market confidence, as it does Italy's failure to promote growth. Without a comprehensive response to the crisis, the risk of a downward spiral remains. In the past days, European stocks posted hefty gains as policymakers were reported to be prepared to help recapitalise European banks, estimated at 100-200 billion euros. Priority remains with Spain and Italy which are basically solvent, but lacks credibility. The prospect of the IMF coming-in alongside EFSF to buy Spanish and Italian bonds boosted sentiment.

Default by Greece?

Greece will miss the targets set just two months ago. The 2012 approved budget predicts a deficit of 8.5% of GDP for '11, well short of the 7.6% target. For '12, the deficit is set at 6.8%, short of the target of 6.5% reflecting the sluggish economy. Its 8.5% target remains a challenge in the current environment. GDP is expected to fall by 5.5% in '11 pushing unemployment to 16%, and a further GDP shrinkage of 2%-2% is in prospect. The '11 shortfall meant Greece would need another 2 billion euros just to bridge the gap. Greece is now off-track, reflecting disappointing revenues and missed targets. On Sept 21, it acted to raise taxes, speed-up public lay-offs, and cut some pensions. Ongoing austerity measures are already deeply unpopular.

My mentor and teacher at Harvard (Marty Feldstein) believes the only way out is for Greece to default and write down its debt by at least 50%. This strategy of default and devalue is standard fare for nations in Greece's shoes. But this hasn't happened because “Greece is trapped in the single currency.” So why are the political leaders trying to postpone the inevitable? He offered two sensible reasons: (i) banks and other financial institutions in Germany and France have large exposures to Greek debt, and time is needed to build capital; and (ii) default would induce sovereign defaults in other countries and runs on their banks. The EFSF is just not large enough to bail out Italy and Spain. Europe's politicians hope to buy enough time (2 years) for Spain and Italy to prove they are financially viable. As I see it, both these nations don't have another two years to prove their worth. The markets will decide the fate of Greece (and possibly Spain and Italy), not the other way around.

The shadow of recession

International Monetary Fund's September forecast pointed to growth in emerging economies exceeding 6% in '11 and '12, but with the advanced nations sliding to below 2%. On current trends, the latter prediction is perhaps closer to 1%. I think the outlook for the eurozone is deteriorating fast: at best, they are already in the throes of a severe slowdown; at worst, a relapse into recession. The European Commission recently stated growth is at a virtual standstill, with eurozone GDP rising by 0.2% in 3Q'11 and 0.1% in 4Q'11. Pain will be most intense in the south (no growth in Italy in '11 and '12) where the pressure of austerity is greatest. But the “core” economies are also hurting. IMF estimated German growth would slow down from 2.7% in '11 to 1.3% in '12. The short-term outlook is even worse. According to Markit Economics, eurozone's factory activity fell to a 25-month low of 48.5 (a reading below 50 indicates contraction). Indications are economic conditions will deteriorate. Germany's index fell in September with overall activity just above 50 the worst performance in two years. France's index stood at 48.2; Italy, 48.3 both in contraction territory. Eurozone contractions reflected lacklustre domestic demand and falling export sales. More sluggish growth will make it harder to achieve fiscal targets. Rising risk of recession will damage efforts to deal with the crisis.

The Fed's latest assessment is for the US economy to falter needs to be taken seriously. Citing anaemic employment, depressed confidence and financial risks from Europe, its chief urged Congress not to cut spending too quickly in the short-term even as they grapple with fiscal consolidation over the medium-term. The IMF expects the United States to grow by 1.5% in '11 (less than 1% in 1H'11) and 1.8% in '12. The short-term outlook isn't looking better. Indeed, the business cycle monitoring group ECRI concluded last week that the US economy is tipping into a new recession. Latest data are mixed after a dismal August. US manufacturing managed to keep expanding and employment strengthened in September but the tone has not been sufficiently robust to dispel fears of another downturn. Sure, United States was not in recession in 3Q'11 but the lack of new orders remains of concern. While even sluggish job growth is welcome, the government's belt-tightening is likely to prove a significant drag on the economy. The Fed's commitment to ensure recovery continues will re-assure. But if Europe falters badly, there is little the Fed can do.

Housing ignored

Over the past 35 years, housing had added value to the GDP. Empirically, in the two years following most recessions, housing adds about 0.5%point to US GDP growth. So far, the contribution has been negative. This is so because: (i) home prices dropped 2.5% this year; since its '05 peak, home prices have fallen 31.6%; (ii) United States lost US$7 trillion (close to one-half of GDP) in the value of homes they own: homeowners equity has since fallen to 38.6% of home values; (iii) home-starts are at an all time low and still falling. The housing bust weighs heavily on consumers making them more reluctant to spend. Innovative ways to unleash housing are needed.

Looks like the world remains in a bad shape. It is also a dangerous place with growing uncertainty, high volatility and increasing social unrest. Europe in particular is in a high risk gamble. I worry European politicians may learn the hard way in trying to outsmart the markets.

> Former banker, Dr Lin is a Harvard educated economist and a British Chartered Scientist who now spends time writing, teaching & promoting the public interest. Feedback is most welcome; email: starbizweek@thestar.com.my

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Up Close and Personal with Steve Forbes

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By TEE LIN SAY and JOHN LOH starbiz@thestar.com.my

BORN: July 18, 1947
MARITAL STATUS: Married with 5 daughters.
Just celebrated his 40 th anniversary
HIGHEST QUALIFICATION: B.A in History from
Princet on in 1970
CAREER: Editor-In-chief of Forbes media,
president and CEO of Forbes Inc
FAVOURITE FOOD: Lamb chop, french fries
and cheese burgers. All the things that are bad!
FAVOURITE PLACE: Bicycle riding and
collecting letters and original manuscripts from
Winston Churchill, among others.
RELIGION: Presbyterian
POLITICAL PARTY: Republican

STEVE Forbes probably knows of the familiar Chinese saying that wealth does not pass three generations. Whether he believes it or not, given the onslaught traditional media have been facing in recent years, one wonders if that ominous saying has more than a tinge of truth to it.

He has grounds to be worried, though. The Forbes family business is now into its third generation. The publishing business was started by B.C. Forbes who then handed it over to his son Malcom Forbes and is currently under the stewardship of Steve Forbes.

Judging by the statistics, Forbes is taking on the proverb head on.

The company's flagship publication, Forbes, is the United States' leading business magazine with a circulation of more than 900,000. Forbes, Forbes Asia and the company's licensee editions together reach a worldwide audience of more than six million readers. The circulation of Forbes' international editions is 590,500.

“The tools have changed tremendously because of the Web. However, the purpose remains the same. We were the early embracers of the Web, and we did not confuse purpose and method. That is why in the United States there is no magazine that has done as well as ours on the Web,” said Forbes.

“It is because of this that we are able to put out more content. Ninety-eight per cent of our content doesn't appear in our magazine. Our early embrace of the Web has resulted in us having 20 million unique visitors a month and the number is growing in terms of usage. Our affiliated sites receive five million to six million visitors,” says Forbes.



Apart from having its own staff of journalists, Forbes also has 800 contributors for its website chosen by its channel contributors.

“No one is doing it on a scale as we are. The bottom line is, we believe the entrepreneurial class is growing around the world. That's what people want to know. The Web has enabled us to do things with more versatility and flexibility,” says Forbes.

On Money

Though born into money in Morristown, New Jersey, Forbes displayed from an early age that ink did run through his veins as he showed an aptitude to run a publishing business.

Graduated cum laude in 1966 from Brooks School, Massachusetts, Forbes, while studying at Princeton, founded his first magazine, Business Today, with two other students. Business Today is currently the largest student-run magazine in the world.

When asked what he loves more journalism or business and investing Forbes simply says he loves both but is quick to note that money is not everything.

“It is an effort for reward. It is a means of doing transactions. It is a facilitator and gives us the ability to invest for the future. Money puts things in a proper perspective,” he muses.

His first memory of money was as a small boy who never had enough allowance for toys and candies. Forbes had to complete his chores to earn money.

Image via Wikipedia

“So, my effort for reward was established at a fairly young age. To get money, you have to meet the needs and wants of other people. Sometimes you have to give them things they didn't know they wanted. The key thing is creativity. Money doesn't just come to you,” he says.

He believes, though, that people have to invest. That is key.

“If you look around the world today, there are great equity opportunities. It is precisely in terrible times like these that you can get enormous bargains.”

He adds that the time to get into the market is when everyone is getting out. “You do it when the clouds and storms are there. When the storm is gone, everyone will see what you saw,” says Forbes.

He cites the period between the late 1970s and the early 1980s when the global economy was in a troubled state. It started to sputter and then recovered in the late eighties. Between the 1990s and and the early part of the 21st century, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had grown 15-fold.

“The wealth of the world has increased. We've had great advances in technology and what's holding us back is the convulsions and distortions in the US dollar. I think when we get a new president, that will change. If we can get through the next one-and-a-half years, I think reforms will be made and better times are coming,” he said.

On Europe's debt problems, Forbes says Europe's woes will persist in the short term especially if the Europeans continue with their “incompetencies in handling the crisis”.

“Europe should be doing what we did in the United States in 2008. They should be having their own Troubled Asset Relieve Programme. If necessary, pump capital into banks. That is why they bail out countries like Greece, not because Greece is important, but because their banks are holding Greek papers and bonds. Hence, Europe has to focus on shoring up its capital,” he said.

He believes though that the axe would have to fall on some of Europe's banks and that Europe needs to have a programme where it does not let the good banks go down with the bad.

“Europe has to restructure its debts, instead of pretending Greece can pay those loans. They cannot. Restructure the debts. Don't just focus on austerity. You also focus on growth to make sure the economy grows again. Greece is now increasing taxes, which is the dumbest thing you could do. They should reform tax code, put in the flat tax. They should also make it easier to set up businesses in Greece,” he argues.

Principles in life

Forbes says an important thing in life is to have an ability to distinguish between what is right and what is wrong, and he has three “F” principles faith, family and friends to maintain an everyday balance.

“The best thing was to have parents who already owned a successful business. My father used to say that nepotism doesn't matter as long as you keep it within the family!” Forbes says with a laugh.

“In my workplace, I am blessed to be in an area where I have always wanted to be in. It must be in the genes. When I was in school, I turned out newsheets for my classmates. I also graded my teachers. I thought, if they can give me grades, why can't I grade them too? That only lasted once!” he jokes.

Forbes likes riding his bicycle and has done trips to various parts of the world with groups of people. He likes London, Paris and various places in Italy. In Asia, he likes the coastal cities in China and some in the interior as he can feel the growth and energy there. He is amazed by what Singapore has done.

His hobbies include collecting old letters and manuscripts of noteworthy individuals Sir Winston Churchill and the writings of obscure British writer John Goldsworthy.

For young entrepreneurs, Forbes has one advice: focus on value adding. The focus should be on providing something people want, or did not know they wanted before.

“You can find it even in the most common areas. Take Starbucks coffee, for instance. Everyone drinks coffee. Anyone can make it and grow it. They still serve it for free on the airlines and yet, how did Starbucks do so well? They did it differently, serving up the Viennese coffee experience,” explains Forbes.

On his political ideologies

Forbes has no qualms voicing his disapproval of US President Barack Obama. Forbes would like to see a new president who can deliver true economic growth and a stable dollar. He says the problem of the weak dollar, which started under George W. Bush, was compounded by Obama.

“We should be in a recovery by now, but instead we are like an automobile going at 10km per hour. We should be going at 120kph,” says Forbes.

Some of Obama's measures that he doesn't agree with include the binge spending and the healthcare bill.

“The healthcare bill is a disaster, which will be repealed in 2013 when the new president comes in. Obama's massive regulations are crushing the banks. And his regulations on energy he is very anti-coal, very anti everything except for windmills, which is a very medieval technology. He has not reformed the tax codes and wants to raise taxes,” says Forbes.

On Obama's recent job stimulus package, Forbes says this is spending money the United States does not have.

“Governments do not create jobs. Entrepreneurs do. He does not understand that,” says Forbes.

For his pick for president, Forbes is leaning towards Republican Governor Rick Perry. He likes Perry's record as Governor of Texas and his success in creating jobs.

“He did not raise taxes, kept the budget under control and has also put in reforms,” says Forbes.

In 1996 and 2000, Forbes campaigned vigorously for the Republican nomination for the presidency.

On why he ran twice as a presidential candidate, Forbes felt there was a vacuum in the field of candidates as more opportunities should be given the people. And his experience from that? “Its more fun to win than to lose!”

Over the next five to 10 years, Forbes hopes to be doing more of what he is doing today, which is trying to influence positive policies to enable his country and the world to grow.