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Sunday 1 March 2020

The games Malay politicians play in Malaysia

Calmer days: In this May 9,2018, photo, Dr Mahathir with Muhyiddin speaking to reporters after the results of GE14 was announced. Yesterday, the King declared Muhyiddin as the Prime Minister. – AP

“WATCH for the game within the game, ” a tycoon who bankrolls political parties told me over coffee in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

On that afternoon, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad shockingly announced that he quit as the Prime Minister.

The tycoon and I were discussing the botched Sunday game plan to install a Perikatan Nasional (or is it Pakatan Nasional?) government.

Something awry had happened which went against the playbook of the Perikatan Nasional plotters.

Was it because the rule of the game was changed?

Was it that the politicians had played each other out?

Was there a game within a game?

In this fast-paced political game, the entire truth has not surfaced, but soon we’ll know.

Tuesday and Wednesday’s process of the King meeting 220 MPs (except for Dr Mahathir and Padang Regas MP Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz who was overseas) individually looked like a done deal. Pakatan Harapan, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (which quit PH on Monday), sacked PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and his 10 MPs, and other minor parties had endorsed Dr Mahathir.

Then came the game within the game.

On Tuesday, after their MPs met the King individually, PKR, DAP and Amanah (which are in Pakatan Harapan) announced that it had backed PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

From a quick MPs calculation, PH with 92 MPs minus Barisan Nasional/PAS/PBRS with about 60 MPs (who not all are voting according to party line) which voted for bubar (Parliament dissolved), it was clear that Dr Mahathir had lost the vote count.

Many thought that the master of the game, Dr Mahathir, kena game (had been played).

On Thursday, Dr Mahathir – without waiting for the King to reveal the outcome of his majesty’s face to face meeting with individual MPs – declared there was no prime minister candidate with a clear majority. The interim Prime Minister announced there would be a special Parliament sitting on March 2 to determine who will be the next prime minister.

However, on Friday, the Parliament Speaker Tan Sri Mohd Ariff Yusof announced that there would not be a special Parliament sitting to determine who will be prime minister.

On that day, Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah decided to give party leaders who have MPs in the Dewan Rakyat the opportunity to nominate a prime minister.

The frontrunners to be our next PM were Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and PKR president Anwar. Seemingly, Dr Mahathir was out of the game.

The fight was shaping up to be Perikatan Nasional (a Muslim and Bumiputera majority government) versus Pakatan Harapan (a non-Muslim majority government).

From the WhatsApp messages I could barely have time to monitor, the rakyat choice depended on who they hated the most.

Some who hated DAP supported the Perikatan Nasional government and those who hated Umno and PAS preferred the Pakatan Harapan government.

Grassroots politicians were getting emotional. Some were hysterical that they have to swallow the hate words they uttered against their political enemies as they might be in the same government.

Last night, a retired veteran journalist WhatsApp-ed me: “Instead of the tik-tok of the horse race and the numbers, why isn’t anyone reporting what this is all about: a battle for Malaysia’s future and what kind of country we want to be?

“A Malaysia focused on race and religion, or a Malaysia focused on building a better tomorrow in the Digital Age?”

I agree with him.

But the game is played fast and furious that we’re trying our best to keep pace with it.

Based on a quick calculation of MPs from political parties, in the numbers game, Muhyiddin had more than Anwar.

Bersatu 36 MPs (from 26 overnight it increased by 10 MPs with Azmin and gang), Umno 39 MPs, PAS 18 MPs, Gabungan Parti Sarawak 18 MPs and minor parties, Muhyiddin won.

Whereas Anwar only had his Pakatan Harapan ally (PKR 39 MPs, DAP 42 MPs and Amanah 11 MPs).

Game over for Anwar?

No. On Friday night, it became clear that the party leaders had no control of their MPs who had different allegiance. Karma had struck Bersatu – it was civil war between Team Mahathir and Team Muhyiddin.

Some sleeper MPs were awakened to go against their party leader.

Some MPs are honourable.

Some are for sale.

Not surprising as this is the games politicians play.

The shocker was yesterday. Dr Mahathir was back in the game.

The interim Prime Minister had thrown his name in the Game of Thrones. He was now the game-changer.

Some of those who backstabbed him when they met the King on Tuesday and Wednesday were now backing him.

Yesterday, the situation was very fluid. Too many games played and play outs.

I would have preferred a bubar endgame.

Let the rakyat be the kingmakers instead of MPs.

The endgame turn out to be the king declaring Muhyiddin as Prime Minister.

To the winners of the Game of Thrones, I wish them: GGWP (Good Game, Well Played).

 Philip  Golingai

Covid-19 reaches the West


https://youtu.be/F_Jq7ItdHtA

Tourists wearing protective masks walks by the Duomo in central Milan on February 27,2020 amid fears over the spread of the novel Coronavirus. - The number of COVID-19 infections in Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe, hits the 400 mark late on February 26, with 12 deaths. (Photo by Miguel MEDINA/ AFP)

But keep cool, negative volatility will likely be followed by positive volatility


The coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has officially reached Western shores.

Since last week, the virus has spread to Europe, Brazil and the Middle East.

New cases have emerged across Europe.

There have been more than 81,000 people infected with nearly 3,000 deaths so far.

Just the previous Wednesday on Feb 19, stocks in the US were complacently at record highs, never mind that Asian markets were roiling and taking huge hits, thanks to the coronavirus that first took roots in Wuhan, China.

Asia has been battling this disease since January. Markets have been volatile but have since recovered as the number of infections have reduced and governments have been diligent at handling the disease.

It is like the domino effect, with the same reactions, panic and emotions that happened throughout Asia now migrating to the West.

It is almost deja-vu, seeing the fear and market reaction, no doubt the impact to the Dow and S&P 500 has a significantly larger impact.

The Covid-19’s largest impact is the fear it has transmitted with rapid speed.

In the US, stocks fell for a sixth straight day on Thursday, with the S&P 500 price index falling 4.4% and bringing this pullback officially into correction territory. On a six-day basis, the Dow Jones was down 13.4% at 25,766.64.

This plummet followed California governor Gavin Newsom’s revealing on Thursday that the state was monitoring 8,400 people for potential Covid-19 infections.

Adding to the bleak outlook, Goldman Sachs slashed its profit outlook and warned the outbreak could cost Donald Trump his reelection in November.

The MSCI all-country global index has dropped more than 7% over this six-day period. Considering stocks were at record highs the previous Wednesday, this is very harsh and painful.

Why, Tesla was all the hype earlier in February. It was US$901 on Feb 21, and new higher target prices were being touted by analysts, nevermind that the stock still didn’t have a price to earnings ratio.

In the last five days, Tesla’s share price had tumbled more than US$200 or 32.7% as of Thursday to close at US$679.

Don’t panic

For the average investor, panic has likely set in.

Whose confidence level would not be shaken with a 12% decline in the S&P 500 in six trading days?

Now talk of a 20% decline is starting to emerge.

Meanwhile the 10-year US treasury yield dropped below 1.3%, remaining in record-low territory.

The downward spiral in oil also continued with WTI crude toppling 2.71% to trade at US$47.41 per barrel on Thursday. Brent oil hovered at the US$51.42 level. So just barely two months into 2020, it is Covid-19 which has been responsible for crushing markets and dismantling profits across the globe.

Many have already slashed market forecasts for the year.

In the past two market stories featured on StarBizweek, readers would know that Fisher MarketMinder thinks that fears over the virus’ market impact are overdone. It thinks that this is part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market.

“The stock market will do what it does – rise and fall.

“If you’ve got a plan based on your risk tolerance and investment horizon, don’t let fear make you swerve in the wrong direction and lose traction.

“Panic is never a good investment strategy, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

It adds that Covid-19 is grabbing attention because it is new and somewhat novel, but that doesn’t mean its economic effects far outweigh more familiar diseases.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there were 34,200 deaths in the United States from influenza during the 2018-2019 flu season.

For infections of Covid-19 outside of China, the mortality appears very low.

Furthermore, the people who are dying tend to be the old and immuno-suppressed or otherwise sick.

“Supply chain disruptions as officials work to contain the outbreak probably dent growth temporarily, but markets are efficient and likely pricing in these expectations as companies issue statements.

“Short-term volatility could linger, but patience should pay off, in our view, ” it adds.

As legendary investor Ben Graham once said, stocks are a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.

“Sentiment wins in the short term, but fundamentals matter most over more meaningful stretches.

“The ‘why’ and ‘how much’ behind sentiment swings strike us far less important.

“The emotional swing itself is what matters.

“Market fundamentals likely didn’t change on a dime seven days ago, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Thursday’s drop simply put US stocks back at mid-October levels.

Furthermore, the world hasn’t fundamentally changed.

While there is no way to know when this drop will end or how much further it will fall, no drop is permanent.

“Whether the rebound starts in days or weeks, whether it is fast or slow, if you have held on thus far, we think you ought to reap the good that comes with the bad.

“Corrections hurt your long-term returns only if you don’t participate in the rebounds that follow them.

“Selling may feel good at a time like this. But when you remove emotion from the equation, all it does is transform a market decline into an actual portfolio loss, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Another investor who is cheering is one of the smartest investors in the world, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

He says the stock market rout we’re witnessing today is “good for us.”

“We’re a net buyer of stocks over time, ” he says on CNBC.

“Most people are savers, they should want the market to go down.

“They should want to buy at a lower price.”

Buffett’s comments came as Dow futures were down by about 800 points or 3% on Monday as stocks around the world plunged as the Covid-19 outbreak escalated.

Regarding the coronavirus specifically, Buffett made clear that he is “not a specialist.” And he warns that “a very significant percentage of our businesses one way are affected.”

However, he reiterates that investors should be more focused on the long term, not the short term.

“If you’re buying a business, and that’s what stocks are... you’re gonna own it for 10 or 20 years, ” he says.

“The real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?” the legendary investor asks.

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Friday 28 February 2020

Malaysia's economic stimulus package of RM20bil to mitigate Covid-19 impact

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/28/gdp-target-within-reach?jwsource=cl

Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced by 4% from 11% to 7%, with effect from Apr 1 to Dec 31, 2020. This will potentially unlock up to RM10 billion worth of private consumption. Malaysian workers have the option to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate
    KUALA LUMPUR: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had on Thursday unveiled the RM20bil stimulus package to offset the fallout from the Covid-19 coronavirus.

    Below are the highlights:

  • Based on three strategies: counter Covid-19 impact, boost people-based growth, encourage quality investments 

  • • Bank Simpanan Nasional provides RM200mil micro credit at 4% interest rate

  • • MAHB to cut rental for tenants, landing charges and parking fees at airports

  • • Postponement of income tax monthly payment for tourism-related companies

  • • Bank Negara provides RM2bil guaranteed financial aid for SMES at 3.75% interest rate

  • • All banks required to reduce monetary burden in the form of postponement of payments or rescheduling of loans

  • • Temporary six months discount of as much as 15% for electricity bills for hotels, tourism agencies, airlines, and shopping centres

  • • Hotels to get service tax breaks from next month to august

  • • Economic growth for 2020 expected to be between 3.2% and 4.2%

  • • Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced from 11% to 7%, with effect from april 1 to dec 31. This could unlock up to RM10bil worth of private consumption. Malaysian contributors have the choice to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate

  • • A payment of RM200 to all bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH) recipients scheduled for May will be brought forward to March. an additional RM100 will be paid into the bank accounts of all BSH recipients in May. Subsequently, an additional rM50 will be channelled in the form of e-tunai

  • • As a result of the stimulus package, fiscal deficit estimated to increase to 3.4% of GDP from targeted 3.2%

  • • Grants of RM1,000 to RM10,000 for entrepreneurs to promote the sale of their products on e-commerce platforms

  • • Securities Commission and bursa Malaysia will waive listing fees for one year, for companies seeking listing on Leading entrepreneur accelerator Platform (LEAP) or Access, Certainty, Efficiency (ACE) markets, as well as companies with market capitalisation of less than RM500mil seeking listing on the main market

  • • Import duty and sales tax exemption on importation or local purchase of machinery and equipment used in port operations for three years commencing april 1

  • • Enough source of money for now, no issuance of bonds needed

  • • Stimulus package to be funded by RM2 trillion savings from bank Negara, Tabung Haji, EPF

  • • Bureaucratic procedures will be expedited to disburse stimulus

Read more:

Tuesday 25 February 2020

Interim premier Dr Mahathir back at work in Perdana Putra; fight cronyvirus?


PUTRAJAYA: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has returned to his office at Perdana Putra amidst the political storm raging over the last two days.

The vehicle ferrying him was seen approaching the protocol gate here at 9.29am on Tuesday (Feb 25).

This comes a day after the 94-year-old Dr Mahathir resigned as Prime Minister, when the Yang di-Pertuan Agong accepted his resignation.

However, the King has consented for Dr Mahathir to continue running the country as interim Prime Minister until a new premier has been appointed and a new Cabinet formed.

Dr Mahathir is the only one from the Pakatan Harapan administration who is left after the Yang di-Pertuan Agong cancelled the appointments of all Cabinet members.

Aside from ministers, the duties of other members the administration including the deputy prime minister, deputy ministers and political secretaries ceased, effective Feb 24.

It is learnt that ministers have packed their belongings and left with them on Monday (Feb 24) night, following the announcement that the King had accepted Dr Mahathir's resignation.

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Read more ..

Pakatan Harapan govt collapses

 

Malaysia's Meltdown Moment - The INSIDE STORY | Sarawak ...


Yeo Bee Yin remembers Sheraton PJ on May 10, 2018


Monday 24 February 2020

The good, the bad and the ugly: Chinese hits back at U.S. claim of "Huawei threat" ....

 

Chinese diplomat hits back at U.S. claim of "Huawei threat" https://youtu.be/taIYEG-HYx4

https://youtu.be/dhR0r8XsFx0

Chinese FM: U.S. accusations against China are 'lies'  

US warnings about China are lies, Foreign Minister Wang says

https://youtu.be/bI56Ezv3iZQ

https://youtu.be/kBr0Ha958-s

It takes all kinds to dominate in a world obsessed with economic might and political power.


AS a young boy growing up in the 1960s, I watched many Western movies and TV shows about cowboys and Red Indians, and as expected of a naïve and ignorant kid, I cheered for the “good” guys – the cowboys.

And because they were portrayed as such, the Red Indians were the “bad” guys to me. They were the savage lot, while the Caucasian men were the civilised group trying to help them. And routinely, the Red Indians would be defeated.

As I reached my teenage years and read more about the West, I realised that my supposed heroes were the ones who robbed these natives of their land, violated treaties and consigned the Red Indians to living on reservations.

The most famous Red Indian, Geronimo, the head of the Chiricahua Apaches, and his men were arrested and despatched to Florida as prisoners of war. Some of them were even discarded at crocodile-infested swamps.

Fast forward to contemporary Hollywood movies – the modern-day bad guys are always the Russians, Albanians and Arabs.

They are usually portrayed as one of brutal spies, criminals, human traffickers, drug dealers and terrorists, and in more lurid plots, all the above.

In The Equalizer, Denzel Washington, who plays a former intelligence agency man latterly driving a cab, goes after sadistic Russian gangsters and predictably, decides to kill all of them – in equally brutal ways.

In the John Wick movie series, Keanu Reeves also goes ballistic going after some Russians.

For some reason, all these ex-operatives are reclusive, divorced or widowed, still connected to their agencies, and as always, their loved ones get harmed (mostly killed) by the Russians, which invariably leads them to needing to settle the score.

Albanians hit the big time after the 2008 movie, Taken, which starred Liam Neeson, who plays Bryan Mills, another retired CIA operative whose teenage daughter and friend get kidnapped by human traffickers (Albanians) while holidaying in France.

In Taken 2, the 2012 sequel, the film follows the family to Istanbul, only to be kidnapped yet again, along with his former wife, by the father of one of the men he killed while saving his daughter two years previously.

It wasn’t just the Albanians who suffered from bad press as until today, my wife still refuses to go to Istanbul – as a result of the movie.

Fortunately for me, I have been to Albania. It’s a beautiful country with good people, and nothing like what the movies depict.

In the case of Arabs, we are accustomed to seeing them portrayed in poor light. They were womanising oil sheikhs at one time and are now mostly barbaric terrorists. Scenes with them are stereotypically sound tracked to the call of the Azan.

Mexicans, typically, are drug dealers. Likewise, Colombians, Cubans and Venezuelans. Well, in the movies, at least.

The hip hop loving African Americans in the United States, with their bling and bad attitude, are a dangerous lot. And thanks to their racist slurs, smaller Asians like us avoid antagonising them.

The latest bad guys are the Chinese. However, Hollywood isn’t quite ready to cast them as the standard stereotype because they are explicitly aware of mainlanders having plenty of clout.

Experts predict that by 2020, China will be the world’s largest cinema market, with box office revenue expected to leap from US$9.9 billion (RM41bil) in 2018 to US$15.5 billion (RM65bil) by 2023, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). In the first quarter of 2018, China surpassed the US in box office revenue for the first time.

It has been reported that China is presently Hollywood’s biggest foreign market, and according to projections by PwC, this year, the Chinese box office will likely rake in US$11.05 billion (RM46bil) compared to ticket sales in the US, which is expected to amount to US$2.11 billion (RM8.8bil).

So, unlike with other nationalities, Hollywood won’t mess around with the Chinese anytime soon.

Failed Hollywood movies, like The Terminator: Dark Fate, which starred Arnold Schwarzenegger, were rescued by the box offices in China.

Hollywood understands the power of money well. In fact, Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight wasn’t even submitted for Chinese approval because of a dubious Chinese businessman character in the 2008 Batman movie. But in the Western media, whether in the US, Europe or Australia, China is being painted negatively, in a blatantly concerted way.

Everything from Huawei, to face recognition and to Xinjiang, and now Coronavirus, China has been the bogeyman.

The elephant-in-the-room theory is that the US wants a “freed Tibet” because it’s angling to build an air base that can send jets into China within minutes.

Adding to the spin doctoring, rioters and vandals in Hong Kong are relentlessly referred to as pro-democracy protestors to burn in the minds of the audience that they are the good guys.

HK policemen are painted as brutal when, ironically, tougher tactics are applied elsewhere, including by the American police.

The US is disturbed by the South China Sea, although it’s thousands of miles away and isn’t even a claimant. It’s strange when you think it has military bases in the Philippines and the vicinity.

The disdain for China even turned comical at some point. When a group of Vietnamese were found dead in a UK truck last year, newsfeeds initially revealed they were Chinese.

As the media scrambled for answers, one reporter, who was pressed for an answer, told his live audience that they could possibly be Chinese who fled to the UK because of their protests over the Xinjiang issue.

The underlining reason is simple – the Western media no longer wants to report about China in a balanced way, resenting its growth to become an economic power in just 30 years as it sits behind the US as the second largest economy in the world.

The narrative is the same: China should be feared and doubted, while Chinese scholars in the US ought to be treated as spies. And advanced technology better than that in American products be branded spying devices.

Hostility towards China has intensified and with the outbreak of Covid-19, there is no silver lining, what with spins of resenting Chinese president Xi Jinping, concealing figures of casualties, cover up, poor food preparation and filthy eating habits. And there’s also the racist perception that Chinese people are to be avoided and cooked up stories of uprising against Xi Jinping.

Of course, there’s also the twisted religious angle – that the Chinese are being punished, either for their eating habits, or again, the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang.

The war against China is being waged in various fronts because it is deemed to have threatened the international order dominated by the US and its allies.

It doesn’t matter if the US is led by Donald Trump or a Democrat president, which could be worse, because the end game against China will simply be the same.

The Coronavirus epidemic has damaged the image of the Chinese. Their invincibility and ascent have taken a knock, so Xi Jinping must prove that China can beat this killer virus soon.

It’s a bad time for China nationals still travelling, but then again, even ethnic Chinese elsewhere are affected.

The average American believes everything they watch on CNN or Fox TV. No one should be surprised since only 45% of Americans – or 41.8 million – have been overseas. That’s an improvement, being 9% more than in 2018.

There is a far bigger picture here, one rooted in the concept of master and servant.

Not too long ago, China was a far-away mysterious country where cheap toys, low grade garments and fireworks came from. In the last couple of decades, the most populous country learnt technology well from the west, like how Japan did in the 1980s.

Today, the republic is on the cusp of achieving world domination. And that’s not a point lost on any superior or inferior nation.

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