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Friday, 11 October 2013

US mind-boggling politicians: stop rocking the boat, China Daily said

Furloughed federal employees, along with their family members, protest the government shutdown outside the US Capitol in Washington DC, USA, 08 October 2013. The federal shutdown in the US is in its second week - EPA Photo.

The prospect of dimmer global growth predicted by the International Monetary Fund should make it a matter of urgency for US politicians to stop manufacturing crises.

Five years after the start of the global financial meltdown triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, it is pitiful that the US is now putting the fragile global recovery under renewed threat with its mind-boggling political infighting.

The IMF on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast to 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent for next year. This year's growth forecast is 0.3 percentage points lower, and next year's 0.2 percentage points down, than the July projection.

Indeed, the growth slowdown in major emerging economies, as the Washington-based global lender identified, will contribute to a global growth fall in the coming years. Both cyclical and structural problems in these economies are demanding immediate and bold reforms to make growth more sustainable.

However, when financial ministers and central bankers gather in Washington later this week to discuss global growth issues, they will be lucky if their attention is not too distracted by the US government shutdown.

The inconvenience caused by the shutdown may be the least of their worries. The elephant in the room, the once inconceivable notion of the US defaulting on its debt and ensuing dollar upheavals will have to be acknowledged.

As the world's largest economy and the home of the global reserve currency, the US surely has the wherewithal to fund its government and avoid a catastrophic default by raising its self-imposed debt ceiling.

Yet the astonishing failure of the US Congress to put national needs before their partisan interests has sparked fears among investors and governments around the world that maybe it is time to think about the unthinkable.

That may explain why the biggest US creditors, China and Japan, have expressed concern over developments in Washington which could affect their several-trillion-dollar investments in US Treasury bonds.

US politicians can discuss, bicker and argue over government spending and economic growth. Kicking cans is one thing, but throwing caution to the wind is not a course of action worthy of the world's leading economy.

-  China Daily

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USA government shutdown !

Thursday, 10 October 2013

IMF, China, Japan warn USA's debts on default! Demystifying the US debt ceiling


UNITED States (U.S.) President Barack Obama Tuesday declared that he was willing to negotiate with Republicans in passing at least a short-term budget that opens up the government at current funding levels.

But Obama, during a media briefing Tuesday, said his offer to negotiate with Republicans on the issues would “absolutely” stand if Congress passes even short-term clean spending and debt ceiling bills.

However, he declared that “the only thing that I will say is, we’re not going to pay ransom for” America paying its bills.

This came as it was revealed yesterday that there are no talks going on at any level to resolve differences over the government shutdown and the debt ceiling deadline.

But Washington’s march toward self-inflicted financial calamity is setting off alarm bells around the world as general bewilderment turns into genuine concern over a possible default by the world’s lone superpower.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as China and Japan – which hold a combined $2.4 trillion in U.S. debt – have called for a quick resolution to the crisis and expressed worries over the economic consequences of a default.

Meanwhile, Obama said U.S. credit-worthiness will be affected if markets see that “we’re not paying all our bills on time.”

Noting that he missed a major conference in Asia this week because of the government shutdown issues, said the president said: “whenever we do these things, it hurts our credibility around the world. Makes it look like we don’t have our act together.”

He warned that if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, “every American could see their 401Ks and home values fall,” and the country would see a “very significant risk” of a deep recession.

Obama said that Congress has to vote to raise the debt ceiling as soon as it votes to reopen the government. Failing to raise the debt ceiling “would be dramatically worse” than a government shutdown, he said.

He criticised House Republican tactics in dealing with the government shutdown and a debt ceiling increase. “Let’s lift these threats from our families and our businesses and let’s get down to work,” he told reporters yesterday.

Obama spoke after Republicans reportedly offered a new approach yesterday to resolve the U.S. fiscal standoff, proposing creation of a bipartisan panel to work on deficit reduction and find ways to end the government shutdown and make recommendations on a debt-limit increase.

The proposal, which was quickly dismissed by Democrats, came as House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama spoke by telephone shortly after Boehner adopted a slightly more conciliatory tone in comments to reporters.

“There are no boundaries here. There’s nothing on the table, there’s nothing off the table,” Boehner said after a meeting with House Republicans, making no mention of his recent demands to delay parts of Obama’s healthcare law in return for approving funds to end the government shutdown.

In the first official response by China, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said that a solution must be found quickly in order to “ensure the safety of Chinese investments” and provide stability for economies around the globe.

“We ask that the United States earnestly take steps to resolve in a timely way the political issues around the debt ceiling and prevent a debt default,” he said. “This is the United States’ responsibility.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its forecast for global economic growth at the same time as lifting its UK growth projection.

It now expects global growth of 2.9% this year, a cut of 0.3% from July’s estimate. In 2014 it expects global growth of 3.6%, down 0.2%.

It cited weakness in emerging economies for the cut.

But it warns that the political standoff over raising the US government’s borrowing limit, if it results in the US defaulting on its debt payments, “could seriously damage the global economy”.

It expects growth of 1.6% in the US this year and 2.6% next year, down 0.1% and 0.2% from its July forecast.

Economists have predicted that a default would do great harm to economies around the world.
Obama recounted to reporters his telephone discussion yesterday morning with House Speaker John Boehner:

He was happy to eventually talk with Republicans about issues they care about, but that “shouldn’t require threats of a government shutdown” or economic chaos over the heads of the American people.

Yesterday, there were news conferences and a high-level phone call between Obama and the House Speaker, but no immediate sign of progress on reopening the government a week into a partial shutdown or reaching a deal to avoid the first-ever U.S. default next week.

Obama called Boehner yesterday morning, and the White House then announced the president would make a statement and take some questions from reporters at 2 p.m. ET.

Earlier, Boehner demanded that Obama and Democrats negotiate with Republicans on steps needed to end the shutdown that began on October 1 and raise the nation’s debt ceiling before the deadline for default on October 17.

“Americans expect us to work out our differences, but refusing to negotiate is an untenable position,” Boehner said, adding that Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are “putting our country on a pretty dangerous path” by rejecting GOP calls for talks

- The Guardian

Demystifying the US debt ceiling: 5 things you should know

As the US government is about to hit its so-called debt ceiling of $16.7 trillion on Oct. 17, the frightening prospect of the world’s biggest economy running out of cash is dominating headlines around the globe.

So, in an effort to shine some light on what exactly the debt ceiling means to all of us, Business RT spoke to leading Moscow financial expert Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Macro-Advisory.com.

What exactly is the “debt ceiling?”
 
The US debt ceiling has existed for almost a century, and describes the maximum amount of money the US can legally borrow. The country introduced the legislative limit on its debt back in 1917, and since then it has stipulated the affordable amount of national debt that can be issued by the US Treasury. As of September 25, the US Treasury reported federal government debt at just shy of $16.7 trillion
($16,699,396,000,000.00, to be exact) in its daily statement, a figure which has been reported for 130 days straight. This is about $25 billion shy of the precise legal limit – $16,699,421,095,673.60. When the US approaches this debt limit, it can take some “extraordinary measures” to buy some time before Congress agrees to raise the ceiling. In its entire history, the US has so far never reached the point of default, where Treasury can’t pay its debt obligations.

Who holds the US debt?
 

The US owes about two-thirds of its debt to US-based creditors, with almost 66 percent of the country’s debt held domestically. US individuals and financial institutions hold around 31.7 percent of US Treasuries, with the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, which holds some 12 percent of the debt. Foreign creditors, including China and Japan, own an estimated 34 percent of total US government debt. These two 'big lender' countries have recently urged the US to take decisive steps to avoid a default.

3 What does the US borrow the money for?
 
In the US, often referred to as a 'big-spending' country, both individuals and the government have habitually spent more than they earn, pushing the economy deeper into debt.

“Just like any ordinary individual, the choice is either to cut back on spending or to borrow money to bridge the gap,” Weafer says.

In 2012, 22 percent of total government expenditures went to social security (means-tested payments to the poor and unemployed), while 21 percent was spent on healthcare, again mostly for poor Americans who cannot afford private health insurance. The third largest expenditure item is defense at 19 percent. In recent decades, the US defense bill has ballooned, mainly due to costly wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. The so-called War on Terror has also added greatly to the debt burden, while the Department of Homeland Security, created after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US, has cost taxpayers more than a cumulative $800 billion.

The biggest contributory factor to the fast-growing debt mountain in recent years, however, has been the economic crisis that began in 2008. Apart from hundreds of billions of dollars paid out to rescue failing Wall Street banks that had made too many toxic loans, the US government has also paid out large amounts on vital social programs to aid the growing 'army of the unemployed'. Coupled with the Bush-era tax cuts to the rich and big business, lower average incomes and greater unemployment have hit government tax revenues hard, sending federal government debt sky-high.

Why can’t they simply print more dollars and pay their debt?
 

No economy in the world can simply turn on its printing presses and create as much cash as it wishes, as this would make its currency worthless.

“If the amount of currency in issue is not sensibly related to the strength of the economy, then foreign trade partners will … devalue the currency quickly,” Weafer explains. “If you have one asset and income source which allows you to issue one dollar, and then you print one more dollar, everybody else will see what you have done and will value your one dollar at only 50 cents. Some countries have done that in the past, but in those cases people soon had to use suitcases just to carry enough currency to buy a loaf of bread.”
 
Under the Bretton Woods financial system, established in 1944, the amount of currency in circulation was linked to gold reserves. But in 1971, the US abandoned this system and started to include a number of other economic factors, based on a recognized ability to service debt and prevent inflation, and maintain orderly trade with the rest of the world.

5 How would a US default affect people around the world, on a macro and personal level?
 
If the US defaulted, then the world’s financial system “would start to freeze up,” Weafer says. “Banks would pull back from risk and lending. The US economy would slide towards recession and the global economy would quickly be affected.” A prolonged US default would lead to job losses everywhere and much tougher borrowing conditions for companies and individuals, he adds.

“A short period of default would also have a bad effect in that it would hurt confidence in the world’s financial system,” he says. “Bankers and investors would assume that a short-term fix in the US would mean it would only be a matter of time before the same issue arises again in 2014. The resulting caution would make life that much tougher for all of us.”
 
- RT news

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Wednesday, 9 October 2013

US and China tussle for trade dominance at Apec summit

United States stepped up efforts to reinforce its economic might in the Asia-Pacific at a regional leaders’ summit in Indonesia on Tuesday, amid warnings from an increasingly bold China.


US Secretary of State John Kerry. Photo: EPA 

The two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) event at a five-star resort on the tropical island of Bali is aimed at breaking down trade barriers among all 21 member economies, but rival agendas by the world powers have overshadowed the talks.

Filling in for US President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry has lobbied for the quick signing of a mega free trade pact grouping 12 Apec nations but not China and summit host Indonesia.

“We need modern rules for a changing road, rules that keep pace with the speed of today’s markets,” Kerry said in a speech on the sidelines of the summit on Monday that was in large part a hard-sell for the planned Trans-Pacific Partnership.

China's President Xi Jinping, Photo: AFP

Kerry was set to meet the leaders of the 11 other nations involved in the TPP on Tuesday afternoon in a bid to hit an against-the-odds deadline set by Obama for a deal by the end of this year.

The United States has championed the TPP as setting “gold standards” to deal with complex changes to the 21st-century economy, such as how to police cloud computing and patents.

But China and even some developing nations included in the TPP have expressed concern that it will set down trade rules primarily benefiting the richest countries and most powerful firms.

“China will commit itself to building a trans-Pacific regional cooperation framework that benefits all parties,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a speech following Kerry at the Apec business forum

“We should enhance coordination... deepen regional integration and avoid the spaghetti bowl effect so as to build closer partnerships across the Pacific.

China will commit itself to building a trans-Pacific regional cooperation framework that benefits all parties -China's President Xi Jinping

Xi’s comments were interpreted in China’s state-run media on Tuesday as direct criticism of the TPP.
“The Trans-Pacific Partnership, featuring confidential talks and the highest free trade standard beyond mere lower tariffs, is widely considered a new step for the US to dominate the economy in the Asia-Pacific region,” the China Daily newspaper said in a front-page report on Xi’s speech.

Indonesia also signalled its irritation at the huge focus on TPP at the Apec summit, shunting the planned meeting on Tuesday afternoon of the 12 nations involved to a hotel outside the official venue.

“We mind actually, and one of the reasons, at the very least, is we don’t want any coverage that will overshadow APEC,” an Indonesian government official said, when asked about why the TPP countries had been told to meet outside.

Meanwhile, China and Indonesia are involved in plans for a rival free trade pact involving 16 countries around the region and being spearheaded by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Negotiations for that pact are expected to be discussed at an East Asia Summit in Brunei this week.
One of the biggest issues at Apec has been the absence of Obama, who had to cancel an Asian tour that would have also taken him to Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines because of the week-long US government shutdown.

Obama and the Democrats are engaged in a potentially catastrophic battle of nerves with the Republicans over the president’s health care law, which could lead to an unprecedented US default.

Obama’s decision not to come to Asia has reinforced sentiments that his high-profile diplomatic, economic and military focus on the region, known as the “pivot”, is in tatters.

Kerry has been forced at Apec to repeatedly insist that the Asia-Pacific remains a top priority.

“I want to emphasise that there is nothing that will shake the commitment of the rebalance to Asia that President Obama is leading,” Kerry told the business forum on Monday.

Meanwhile, Xi filled the Obama vacuum with high-profile state visits to Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur ahead of Apec.

He then used the Apec business event to outline a Chinese vision for the region of a “united and prosperous” family.

Sources: AFP

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Tuesday, 8 October 2013

APEC should lead a more open world economy & play a bigger role; Reform and innovation are new drivers: President Xi said

Leaders of the Asia-Pacific region and their respective spouses, wearing traditional Balinese "endek" costumes, pose for a group photo before a dinner hosted for the leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on Monday. Photo: AFP 




Chinese President Xi Jinping Monday called on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies to play a leading role in maintaining and advancing an open world economy.

Xi made the remarks during a keynote speech to an informal meeting of economic leaders at an APEC meeting on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, which had sustainable growth and regional cooperation high on the agenda.

Noting that the world economy is still confronted with daunting challenges before achieving a full recovery and sound growth, Xi said APEC must face them head-on with courage and resolve.

The president said APEC member economies should work together for the common development of the Asia-Pacific through increased macro-economic policy coordination.

With the economies of APEC members closely intertwined with economic globalization, they must amplify the positive effects of macro-economic policy coordination while preventing or reducing the negative spillover, and pursue win-win cooperation in an open and inclusive spirit, he said.

Su Hao, director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center at China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times that Xi's speech stressed that economic development is the priority for members of APEC, as other players try to provoke other problems in the region which might make some ignore the importance of economic development.

Meanwhile, Xi also noted that while the international community is working to push forward the Doha Round, various free trade arrangements in the Asia-Pacific are advancing in parallel, each with different rules, standards and preferred pathways.

Xi said that China believes that "any arrangement should lead to a cooperative relationship, not a confrontational one; an open mindset, not an exclusive one; win-win results, not a zero-sum outcome; and integration, not fragmentation," without naming a particular arrangement.

Analysts believe it refers to the US-advocated Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), which excludes China.

"TPP is like a small circle which might be against APEC's aim to achieve wide economic integration in the region," said Su.

Xi also called on APEC members to stay committed to open development and resolutely oppose protectionism.

Ei Sun Oh, a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, told the Global Times that Xi's call for more open access is "both timely and crucial," and Southeast Asian countries understand collective lowering of these barriers will ultimately bring forth more common interests for all.

He noted that China could take the lead, for example in lowering or canceling several tariffs in the new China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone.

Earlier on Monday, Xi elaborated his views on the Chinese economy and the country's reform at a business forum on the sidelines of the APEC meeting, assuring business leaders that there is no reason to fear a hard landing.

China's GDP growth slowed to 7.6 percent in the first half of this year.

"I'm fully confident in the future of China's economy," Xi said, noting the slowdown is "an intended result of our own regulatory initiatives" and a "seven percent annual growth rate will suffice" to meet China's medium-term goal of doubling per capita income by 2020.

Xi highlighted the importance of reform, which he said is facing an uphill battle and in the deep-water zone.

"China is a big country. It shouldn't make subversive errors on fundamental issues, or it would be irredeemable. We not only need to be bold in exploring [reform], but also need to be cautious and think it over twice," Xi said.

The APEC group has 21 members, which account for about 55 percent of world GDP and some 40 percent of the world's population.

Agencies contributed to this story


President Xi fully confident about future of Chinese economy

Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd L) and his wife Peng Liyuan (1st L) pose for a photo with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2nd R) and his wife before a dinner hosted for the leaders and their spouses at the 21st APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Bali, Indonesia, Oct. 7, 2013. Photo: Xinhua

 Chinese President Xi Jinping said in Bali on Monday that he is fully confident about the future of the Chinese economy, based on a comprehensive analysis of all factors.

"I am confident because first of all China's growth rate is within the reasonable and expected range," said Xi while addressing the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) CEO summit, noting that the change in speed of growth has on the whole been smooth.

Describing the fundamentals of the Chinese economy as good, Xi said that "everything has been going as expected and nothing has come as surprise."

He stressed that the slowdown in the speed is an intended result of China's own regulatory initiatives.

"Second, I am confidant because the quality and efficiency of China's economy development are improving steadily," the president continued.

Moving from over-reliance on investment and export to dependence on domestic demand, China, instead of taking GDP growth as the sole criterion for success, is now focusing more on improving the quality and efficiency of growth, he elaborated.

"Third, I am confident because China has a strong home-grown driving force for growth," said Xi, adding that ongoing urbanization, education improvement and expansion of domestic demand will continuously inject impetus into the economy.

The Chinese leader also attributed his confidence to the sound development prospects of the Asia-Pacific, saying his country has faith in the development of the whole region.

"China has achieved its own development, and at the same time, China's development has also contributed to regional economic growth," said Xi, eying a stronger momentum of the interaction in the future.

After wrapping up his state visits to Indonesia and Malaysia, the Chinese President arrived in Bali on Saturday afternoon to attend the APEC meeting, his first appearance at the summit since taking over the presidency in March. -Xinhua

Xi: Reform and innovation are new drivers of economic growth

Chinese President Xi Jinping has told a group of CEOs gathered in Bali that his country's economy will continue to grow. His remarks came on the final day of a summit for business leaders that was held on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders Meeting.
Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the APEC CEO Summit in Bali,
Indonesia, Oct. 7, 2013. (Xinhua/Wang Ye)

As the head of Asia’s most robust economy, when Xi Jinping talks, business leaders listen. And as a CEO Summit of regional executives closed, President Xi laid out his vision for Asia-Pacific’s economies.

"The Asia-Pacific has long been an important engine of world economic growth. To push forward a recovery at a time of a sluggish global economy, economies in the Asia-Pacific should have the courage to do what has never been done before." Chinese president Xi said.

Many CEOs attending the summit had expressed concern over Beijing’s QUOTE “slowing growth.” But a new study showed that nearly 70 percent of them plan to increase their investments in China in the coming years.

Speaking before Xi, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, attempted to assure them: the entire region presented all sorts of opportunities.

Already twice this year, Russia has had to cut its growth forecast, as Moscow has struggled with waning investment and output.

Last week, the U-S overtook Russia as the world’s largest gas-and-oil producer. A point highlighted by John Kerry, the U-S Secretary of State, standing in place for Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, Kerry tried to reassure business leaders that despite Obama’s absence, Washington remained committed to region.

“I want to emphasize that there is nothing that’ll shake the commitment of the United States to the rebalance to Asia that President Obama is leading. And I think it’s fair to say to all of you that we are very very proud to be a Pacific nation.” Kerry said.

Reporter: “The CEOs represent the nearly 3 billion customers who live in the Asia Pacific region. In the coming years, the region’s economy will be determined by how those customers will spend their money and how they spend will likely be determined by what the leaders here say, and what the CEOs hear.” - CCTV

Monday, 7 October 2013

Bosses prefer Multi-skilled workers with the digital technologies, Global Randstad Workmonitor Report

PETALING JAYA: Malaysian employees expect their jobs to be more demanding with the increasing influence of digital technologies in the workplace and more bosses preferring to hire multi-skilled workers.

The latest survey by a global recruitment and human resource services firm showed that nine out of 10 Malaysian workers expected their jobs to be more challenging over the next five years.

According to the latest Randstad Workmonitor Report, greater workplace expectations were higher in Malaysia compared with respondents in Singapore (80%), Hong Kong (73%), Australia (73%) and New Zealand (82%).

The survey, based on 405 respondents, also found that 95% of the Malaysian workers were willing to develop their skills to meet the changes.

Randstad Malaysia director Jasmin Kaur said employers have increased the emphasis on education, experience, social and digital skills.

“With organisations becoming leaner, employees are now expected to be not only high performing, but to be able to put on several hats,” she said.

Jasmin said the figures were reflective of Malaysia’s aim to become a high-income nation by 2020.

Malaysian Employers Federation’s (MEF) executive director Shamsuddin Bardan concurred with the report’s findings

“Like it or not, this is the definite trend due to the demands of business,” he said, adding that even older employees had to adapt to the digital trend of being wired and contactable.

Jasmin said the survey also found that most of the respondents believed that their employers placed greater importance on digital skills than they did five years ago.

“With social media being a part of today’s business environment, being comfortable with using tools such as Twitter and LinkedIn could help an employee keep connected and abreast of what is happening in the industry.

“Different companies have different expectations of their workers. Employees who are client-facing may be expected to be on call outside of standard office hours to respond to clients as required,” she said.

Shamsuddin echoed similar views, saying that it was now a necessity for employees to be reachable anytime of the day, whether it was outside work hours on while they were on holiday.

However, he said employers recognised that there had to be a work-life balance for their staff, adding: “Being contactable is not the same thing as working 24/7.”

Burnt out: Employees face stressful days at home and at the workplace if a work-life balance is not struck.

He said employers also knew that happy employees were more productive.

MTUC secretary-general Abdul Halim Mansor said the umbrella organisation for unions was against the culture of employees being at the beck and call of bosses beyond working hours.

He said the Malaysian Employment Act specified rest days which workers were entitled to.

“Notwithstanding the demands of the job, the rights of employees to get adequate rest should be respected,” he said.

Abdul Halim said such a working culture could have negative impacts on families and communities.

Company managers, who spoke to The Star, said the nature of a job and position would determine if an employee had to be on call.

“For those in management, there is no escape,” said the human resources manager of a multinational company in Kuala Lumpur

Another manager, who also declined to be named, said being on call 24 hours a day was already a norm.

“The company provides employees with smartphones so they can be reached anytime,” she said.

The survey, conducted between July 17 and Aug 5, also found that 77% of Malaysians were satisfied with their current employer compared with 56% in Singapore, 47% in Hong Kong and 44% in Japan.

Jasmin said a pleasant working environment, effective leadership and career development training were the reasons why Malaysian employees remained satisfied.

The quantitative study was conducted via an online questionnaire. The respondents were between 18 and 65-years old, working a minimum of 24 hours a week in a paid job.

Randstad issues its survey report four times a year.

- Contributed by  by p. Aruna, Neville Spykerman, and D. Kanyakumari, The Star/Asia News Netowrk

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