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Saturday, 19 May 2012

Stop the banks from gambling!

The JPMorgan Chase debacle is ample reminder that banks are dangerously risking money on dubious bets with dire consequences if they are not stopped. 





US giant financial services group JPMorgan Chases trading debacle which has already lost US$2bil and which threatens to raise losses to double that, will likely put pressure for greater regulation of the banking industry, not just in the United States but around the world.

That is as it should be for despite the 2008 financial crisis which resulted from bankers structuring complex and questionable credit derivatives which few understood but many bought because they believed the rating assigned them by unknowledgeable credit rating agencies, the lessons dont appear to have been learnt.

With massive US government help, many banks which were on the brink of failure were rescued and the memories of those tempestuous times when the future of not just the banks but the worlds financial system was in jeopardy seems to have faded away from public consciousness.

Until now that is.

JPMorgans debacle is but a stark reminder that little has changed since the 2008 world financial crisis in terms of how banks operate and that the world is still held to ransom by rogue traders and others who risk shareholders funds and depositors money as easily and as nonchalantly as spinning the dice on a gambling table for a few dollars.

The sad truth is that little has been done despite all the rhetoric to ensure that the predatory chase for profits by banks does not involve gambling with shareholders equity and deposits. Players still get away with massive profits and bonuses when they succeed and little more than slap on the wrist when things go wrong.

It is an indication of a financial world that has gone awry as players such as hedge funds effectively search for new games to play in a massive, borderless casino where the uninitiated are quickly gobbled up and the others play high-stakes games in which some must become major losers.

This comment by Mark Williams, a professor of finance at Boston University, who has also served as a Federal Reserve Board examiner quoted in the New York Times aptly sums up JPMorgans mistake:

JPMorgan Chase has a big hedge fund inside a commercial bank. They should be taking in deposits and making loans, not taking large speculative bets.

The trades by JPMorgan are complex to say the least and no one really seems to understand them. The New York Times reported that the complex position built by the bank included a bullish bet on an index of investment-grade corporate debt and was later paired with a bearish bet on high-yield securities.

The report further said that the trading losses suffered by JPMorgan have accelerated in recent days and have surpassed the banks initial estimate of US$2bil by at least US$1bil. Part of the reason for this is that hedge funds already know JPMorgans position is under pressure and are piling in on the opposite trade. That means the US$4bil losses anticipated may materialise sooner rather than later.

While the US$4bil loss wont threaten JP Morgans capital base, the question that must arise is what if the losses were much bigger and they could well have been. JPMorgan would most likely be considered one of those banks that cant fail and would have been rescued by the US government.

To stop exactly such situations, the Obama administration had put up the Volcker Rule named after former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker who helped formulate it but the legislation is still being hammered out. The rule basically seeks to prohibit banks from trading for their own account.

But there are exceptions and these allow banks to aggregate their positions and offset their exposures in a single hedge. Some feel that JPMorgans so-called hedge an oxymoron in this instance as it hedged nothing falls into that category but others dont.

For most of us, the solution is quite simple and straightforward if you are a bank and you take depositors money, you got no business speculating using that money, especially since you also have access to low-cost funds from the Fed and elsewhere by virtue of being a bank.

But it is an election year in the US and the silly season of course, much like it is here.

Remember, free enterprise and the capitalist system on which the US is built. You cant restrict free enterprise, the reasoning goes, even if it is your money the bank is using.

Big business has big money and they are using that to try and put Mitt Romney into the White House. If that happens, then it may well be bye-bye to banking sector reform which would be bad for the United States and the world.

New York Times columnist and renowned economist Paul Krugman was very blunt in his analysis of the JPMorgan debacle at the end of which he basically thanked JPMorgan Chases chief executive Jamie Dimon for confirming that the banking sector needs greater regulation.

Krugman, an unashamed and unabashed Democrat, has been one of those opinion makers who has been consistently calling for greater regulation of the US financial sector in the wake of world financial crisis.
JPMorgan, relatively unscathed by the world financial crisis sparked off by the subprime crisis but now in trouble through a trade engineered by a trader in London known as The Whale, is a timely reminder that little has been done to stop the recurrence of another world financial crisis.

Let us take heed before it is too late.

A QUESTION OF BUSINESS By P. GUNASEGARAM starbiz@thestar.com.my
Independent consultant and writer P Gunasegaram sometimes thinks that the financial world is just one whole, big, casino of unimagined proportions. The trouble is no one knows who owns it.

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May 17, 2012

MBA today is disrupting the competition?

The in word in business school today is disruption

AFTER seven weeks of cool spring weather, our Malaysian sun finally arrived in Boston. As I basked in the warm sunshine in the courtyard of McArthurs Hall, Harvard Business School (HBS), a gentle breeze reminded me of Awana Genting back to 2004, where I last enrolled in a two-week HBS management programme organised by our Malaysian HBS Alumni Club. Four HBS professors taught us then.

Here I am, eight years later, being taught by no less than 15 senior Harvard professors covering almost 120 case studies and numerous lectures. To justify their hefty fees, HBS threw their full arsenal of specialist professors at us. From basic strategy, finance, marketing subjects to deal making negotiation to social media to entrepreneurship. We have had the presence of former and current CEOs of Merck, Cisco, Carl Zeiss and many others attending our discussions on their company followed by their explanation and defence on their course of actions/decision making as per their case study.

Today, we covered the Facebook case study to coincide with its listing. And we had the director of FBI giving us a lecture after attending the case study on FBI reorganisation after Sept 11. To say that I am impressed would be an understatement.

It was like a Hollywood movie. There must be at least 10 FBI agents with their standard issued earpiece and dark suits staring at us at the entrance and exit. And then a standing ovation at the end of the speech to send off The Director. Captain America has saved the universe again.

HBS is the post graduate business school of the Harvard University. It has arguably the most revered MBA programme in the world. With a fixed annual enrolment of 900 students, an applicant has a 7% success rate and he or she will be at least 27 years old with an average of four years working experience. It is a two-year programme with full residential accommodation provided in campus. Depending on ones preferred living standards, the expected investment should be between US$160,000 and US$200,000 (RM480,000 and RM600,000) over two years.

It is in the executive education that HBS has amazed me the most. They have built a business model that is difficult to replicate when in the world, all kinds of education business is being commoditised. They have differentiated themselves in terms of positioning, reputation and school fees. High, higher, highest.

HBS is a money making machine. They have built an organisation that is always evolving, very sensitive to the external environment. If necessary, they are not afraid to modify their strategy, realign people, structure, processes and their unique culture to face the new environment. All the time, staying close to their core strategy of providing a unique learning experience to their target market. They practise what they preach.

Sensitive to change

So are you sensitive to the changing environment' When do you think is a good time for your organisation to adjust your strategy and realign your organisation to face new challenges' Is it during the good times or only when your organisation is in intensive care'

On hindsight, just look at Malaysia Airlines over the last 15 years. What do you think the management should have done then' When Southwest Airlines and Ryanair in the United States and Europe respectively have successfully taken their markets by storm, they should not have ignored the threat set by AirAsia. When you see air ticket prices being commoditised, you will be flying into a smaller gross margin zone. Which means you need a leaner and lower cost structured organisation to face a new challenging environment. So what do you think happened' And is their current organisational cost structure lean enough to face even tougher challenges today' We will find out within 15 months.

In the current world where many products and services are moving towards commoditisation, how are you differentiating your products and services from the competition' More importantly, how do you continue to differentiate to stay ahead of your competition' Look at Astro. From a virtual stranglehold grip on cable TV market, their monopoly status has been threatened by new entrants offering lower cost options straight to your homes. Astros response must be swift and decisive. As a true market leader, Astro should pre-empt and disrupt the competition. With new technology and smart devices like iPad and smartphones, Astro will deliver contents to their consumers anywhere their consumers find it convenient to consume. Just like The Stars ePaper.

Then from the competitors viewpoint, just imagine Malay Mail relaunched as an ePaper. Massive savings on newsprint and delivery costs. Does that mean that this is the beginning of the end of free physical newspaper' Absolutely intriguing. Technological advances have disrupted businesses all over the world. And HBS is actually reviewing amongst themselves whether e-learning will disrupt their current successful executive education model' Will your business be disrupted by new technologies' If it is, be afraid. Be very afraid.

High margin 

I have always emphasised that entrepreneur wannabes should go into high margin business. Which means avoid businesses that is being commoditised and having the ability to differentiate your products or services from your competition. The in word in business school today is disruption. Disrupt others before they disrupt you. Disrupt yourself to stay ahead. Stay ahead of technology disruption. Be the disruptor not the disruptee. There are no such words. I just disrupted the dictionary.

So is the HBS executive education programme as good as they claimed' Does it justify the high positioning and high cost charged' Honestly, I have no idea. They have kept us so busy from day one to stop us from thinking about it. And they have piled a tonne of case studies and notes onto us. Plus many free books written by the professors. So much so that this bunch of senior executives with an average age of 47 years face information fatigue, CPU overload and degrading eyesights.

Case studies still piling in until the last day. John Kotter still to speak next week. But spirits are high as we look forward to the close of the programme. This programme has been a major disruption to my life. Miss my country, my sunshine, my food, my friends and colleagues. And most of all my family.

Have a happy weekend.

ON YOUR OWN By TAN THIAM HOCK

The writer is an entrepreneur who hopes to share his experience and insights with readers who want to take that giant leap into business but are not sure if they should. Email him at thtan@alliancecosmetics.com 

Friday, 18 May 2012

Beauty and the beast in sports

Sports is a beautiful thing and sporting success is even more wonderful. But what do we do about the spoilsports that always dog the big events?



IT was a crazy night, wasn’t it? Yes, like everybody else, I am talking about last Sunday when the two giants of Manchester and the London upstarts called Queens Park Rangers took us all on a roller-coaster ride of emotions.

One minute, City were taking the title with QPR going down; the next, it was United taking the title and QPR staying up – and just when it seemed that all had been settled bar for the drunken celebrations on the red side of the town, everything turned on its head.

And City are the champions and QPR are staying up. Thank God for that — the QPR bit, I mean. I don’t care too much about City being champions although it’s nice to see the Devils off their high-horses for once.

The way the emotions ran that night, I almost wished QPR had just stayed down the season before. It’s just too much excitement for people like me.

And I’m sure I wasn’t the only one. But in all that excitement, we all forgot that other big game.

What other big game, you ask?

Well, Sunday was also the day when the national hockey team became Asian champions — for the first time ever, and at any age-level.

It was an achievement we should have been shouting about, a crowning glory for a side that has always been overshadowed by the South Asian giants Pakistan and India and, even the South Koreans. Those pesky Koreans beat us at everything, and it was great to see our boys whip them 6-3 in Malacca.

Now, we have to salute the young juniors who overcame the odds, beat the Indians in the semi-finals and the Pakistanis in the final to bury those old ghosts. And one of the players was still in mourning. His father had died just days earlier.

We also have to salute the coaches, the once-mercurial Minarwan Nawawi (who has never won the title even while playing in a star-studded team) and the ever-steady K. Dharmaraj.

Dharmaraj almost lost his job as coach but survived and went on to this.

Absolutely glorious for him and Minarwan. And it brought back memories of that fantastic fourth place finish in the World Cup in 1975. And we can now dream of greater glory at senior level.

But there always has to be an ugly side.

In Manchester, there was that dumb Joey Barton doing what he did — and after being red-carded!

And on the hockey pitch after Malaysia had become champions, the crowd went crazy. They surged on to the pitch. And guess what? They were not joining the boys in celebrations.

They were stealing the players’ hockey sticks!

Five players lost their sticks and Dharmaraj had to hastily hide his wallet for fear that it may be snatched from him.

What do we do about these crazy goons? It’s a problem that’s been dogging sports for years.

I remember in a veterans’ football tournament in Penang, a spectator came over to ask a winning player if he could take a look at his medal. When the guy handed it over, this young chap coolly walked away with the medal!

When all the other players caught him and forced him to return his medal, he brought a bunch of gangsters to beat up the players.

And they say Barton is a lout.

Talking of controversy dogging sports, that’s exactly what is happening with the next extravaganza we are waiting for. Euro 2012 has gotten ugly.

Ukraine and Poland are jointly hosting Europe’s greatest show. And to make sure it puts a fine face to the visiting world, Ukraine has decided to clear its streets of stray dogs.

So what do the authorities do? They round up the dogs, hit them with poison and then burn them in mobile incinerators.

And there have been claims that the dogs are still alive as they are set alight. It seems the dogs are being hanged as well.

There has been a huge outcry in the Internet. An online petition has been signed by thousands, and many are suggesting that the Euros be taken someplace else — some place where there is not that much cruelty to animals.

And Pamela Anderson is hot — under the collar, that is. The sex bombshell with the now less-than-extra-large chest has written to UEFA president Michel Platini to react to the mass slaughter.

She’s not the first sex symbol to be pained by the killing of dogs.

During the 1988 Olympics and the 2002 World Cup Finals in South Korea, the government had to tell its citizens not to eat dog meat. And butchers were also told not to hang dog carcasses in the windows.
It was Brigitte Bardot who complained then.

> Malaysia has its own dog woes, what with a jogger being killed in an attack and with authorities brazenly killing the animals in many places.

Why Not? By D. RAJ


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HP on More Layoffs!

Hewlett Packard, CEO, Meg Whitman may announce a major layoff with next Wednesday’s earnings call when she also details a company restructuring plan. Whitman could eliminate 30,000 workers out of a total of 325,000 or 9% of the workforce. Whitman is repositioning the company away from PCs as smartphones and tablets displace desktop computers. HP may add to sales, product development and R&D. The New York Times reported the news.

Stop the Bleeding

HP needs innovation to staunch the slide in revenues and profits. Revenues could decline 4% to $122 billion this year from $127 billion in 2011.

Aggressive cost cutting by former CEO Mark Hurd may have disadvantaged the company by reducing products in the pipeline. Then, major acquisitions by Whitman’s immediate predecessor, Leo Apotheker, who was with the firm for less than a year, reduced the cash hoard but did not contribute to financial performance and earnings fell sharply. HP spent $40 billion in acquisitions over four years, but was not able to monetize them.

HP has mature product lines in decline. It dominates in PCs that face dwindling demand, margin pressure and intense competition from Asian suppliers. HP also dominates in printers, which generate cash but are fading. About 75% the services business is tied to printers, so that baby goes out with the bathwater. HP may combine the PC and printer units. HP does not play in smart phones and tablets.

Cheap and Getting Cheaper

HP has the lowest valuation of the large cap technology companies. Competitors Cisco, IBM and Oracle have market capitalizations of about 2.3 times revenues, but HP’s market cap is one-fourth its revenues. HP invests less in R&D than its rivals. On the average, Cisco, IBM and Oracle invest about 9% of revenues in R&D while HP invests 2%.

Unlike its competitors that have a vertical integration strategy, HP partners with Microsoft for operating software and with Intel for processors. Investors do not consider Microsoft and Intel to be innovators. Because HP does not control all the processes, it is slow to adopt new technologies. More than a decade ago, HP announced a vision to integrate all the entertainment devices in the home, including the PC and TV. But Apple made the vision a reality, not HP.

Tough Competition

In the consumer market, Apple and Google have the majority of share in smartphones and tablets. Apple leveraged  its iOS operating system that allows devices to synch up and interplay to lock customers into the brand. Apple controls the software, microprocessor design and manufacturing. The vertical integration allows it to beat rivals with advanced technologies.

Competitors have blocked the enterprise too. IBM trumped HP in consulting, security and systems management. Oracle beat HP in software, like big data, storage and analytics. And, Cisco controls networking and cloud gear. What is left?

About her plans, Whitman said in BusinessWeek in March that “We need to move quickly to capture emerging opportunities in areas like cloud, security, and information management,” Whitman continued. “We’ve already assembled some formidable assets. Now we need to align our portfolio to deliver a new generation of capabilities. We see a once-in-a-generation chance to define the future of technology and position HP as a leader for decades to come.”

Susan KallaBy Susan Kalla, Forbes Contributor

 
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Facebook? No thanks!

As Facebook grows, millions say, 'no, thanks'
 
(AP) NEW YORK -- Don't try to friend MaLi Arwood on Facebook. You won't find her there.

You won't find Thomas Chin, either. Or Kariann Goldschmitt. Or Jake Edelstein.

More than 900 million people worldwide check their Facebook accounts at least once a month, but millions more are Facebook holdouts.

They say they don't want Facebook. They insist they don't need Facebook. They say they're living life just fine without the long-forgotten acquaintances that the world's largest social network sometimes resurrects.

They are the resisters.

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"I'm absolutely in touch with everyone in my life that I want to be in touch with," Arwood says. "I don't need to share triviality with someone that I might have known for six months 12 years ago."

Even without people like Arwood, Facebook is one of the biggest business success stories in history.

The site had 1 million users by the end of 2004, the year Mark Zuckerberg started it in his Harvard dorm room. Two years later, it had 12 million. Facebook had 500 million by summer 2010 and 901 million as of March 31, according to the company.

That staggering rise in popularity is one reason why Facebook Inc.'s initial public offering is one of the most hotly anticipated in years. The company's shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market on Friday under the ticker symbol "FB". Facebook is likely to have an estimated market valuation of some $100 billion, making it worth more than Kraft Foods, Ford or Disney.

Facebook still has plenty of room to grow, particularly in developing countries where people are only starting to get Internet access. As it is, about 80 percent of its users are outside U.S. and Canada.

But if Facebook is to live up to its pre-IPO hype and reward the investors who are clamoring for its stock this week, it needs to convince some of the resisters to join. Two out of every five American adults have not joined Facebook, according to a recent Associated Press-CNBC poll. Among those who are not on Facebook, a third cited a lack of interest or need.

If all those people continue to shun Facebook, the social network could become akin to a postal system that only delivers mail to houses on one side of the street. The system isn't as useful, and people aren't apt to spend as much time with it. That means fewer opportunities for Facebook to sell ads.

Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project, says that new communications channels - from the telephone to radio, TV and personal computers - often breed a cadre of holdouts in their early days.

"It's disorienting because people have different relationships with others depending on the media they use," Rainie says. "But we've been through this before. As each new communications media comes to prominence, there is a period of adoption."

Len Kleinrock, 77, says Facebook is fine for his grandchildren, but it's not for him.

"I do not want more distractions," he says. "As it is, I am deluged with email. My friends and colleagues have ready access to me and I don't really want another service that I would feel obliged to check into on a frequent basis."

Kleinrock says his resistance is generational, but discomfort with technology isn't a factor.

After all, Kleinrock is arguably the world's first Internet user. The University of California, Los Angeles professor was part of the team that invented the Internet. His lab was where researchers gathered in 1969 to send test data between two bulky computers -the beginnings of the Arpanet network, which morphed into the Internet we know today.

"I'm having a `been-there, done-that' feeling," Kleinrock says. "There's not a need on my part for reaching out and finding new social groups to interact with. I have trouble keeping up with those I'm involved with now." Thomas Chin, 35, who works at an advertising and media planning company in New York, says he may be missing out on what friends-of-friends-of-friends are doing, but he doesn't need Facebook to connect with family and closer acquaintances.

"If we're going to go out to do stuff, we organize it (outside) of Facebook," he says.

Some people don't join the social network because they don't have a computer or Internet access, are concerned about privacy, or generally dislike Facebook. Those without a college education are less likely to be on Facebook, as are those with lower incomes.

Women who choose to skip Facebook are more likely than men to cite privacy issues, while seniors are more likely than those 50-64 years old to cite computer issues, according the AP-CNBC poll.

About three-quarters of seniors are not on Facebook. By contrast, more than half of those under 35 use it every day.

The poll of 1,004 adults nationwide was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications May 3-7 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Steve Jones, a professor who studies online culture and communications at the University of Illinois at Chicago, says many resisters consider Facebook to be too much of a chore.

"We've added social networking to our lives. We haven't added any hours to our days," Jones says. "The decision to be online on Facebook is simultaneously a decision not to be doing something else."

Jones says many people on Facebook try to overcome that by multitasking, but they end up splitting their attention and engaging with others online only superficially.

Arwood, 47, a restaurant manager in Chicago, says she was surprised when colleagues on an English-teaching program in rural Spain in 2010 opted to spend their breaks checking Facebook.

"I spent my time on break trying to learn more about the Spanish culture, really taking advantage of it," she says. "I went on walks with some of the students and asked them questions."

Kariann Goldschmitt, 32, a music professor at New College of Florida in Sarasota, Fla., was on Facebook not long after its founding in 2004, but she quit in 2010. In part, it was because of growing concerns about her privacy and Facebook's ongoing encouragement of people to share more about themselves with the company, with marketers and with the world.

She says she's been much more productive since leaving.

"I was a typical user, on it once or twice a day," she says. "After a certain point, I sort of resented how it felt like an obligation rather than fun."

Besides Facebook resisters and quitters, there are those who take a break. In some cases, people quit temporarily as they apply for new jobs, so that potential employers won't stumble on photos of their wild nights out drinking. Although Facebook doesn't make it easy to find, it offers an option for suspending accounts (Look for a link under the "Security" tab in "Account Settings.")

Goldschmitt says it takes effort to stay in touch with friends and relatives without Facebook. For instance, she has to make mental notes of when her friends are expecting babies, knowing that they have become so used to Facebook "that they don't engage with us anymore."

"I'm like, `Hmmm, when is nine months?' I have to remember to contact them since they won't remember to tell me when the baby's born."

Neil Robinson, 54, a government lawyer in Washington, says that when his nephew's son was born, pictures went up on Facebook almost immediately. As a Facebook holdout, he had to wait for someone to email photos.

After years of resisting, Robinson plans to join next month, mostly because he doesn't want to lose touch with younger relatives who choose Facebook as their primary means of communication.

But for every Robinson, there is an Edelstein, who has no desire for Facebook and prefers email and postcards.

"I prefer to keep my communications personal and targeted," says Jake Edelstein, 41, a pharmaceutical consultant in New York. "You're getting a message that's written for you. Clearly someone took the time to sit down to do it."

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