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Showing posts with label Geopolitics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geopolitics. Show all posts

Sunday 17 March 2024

The more thoroughly exposed the CIA's true face, the better

Mother of all disorder Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Reuters exclusively reported on Thursday that, according to a former US official with direct knowledge of highly confidential operations, then-US president Donald Trump authorized the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to launch secret operations on Chinese social media aimed at "turning public opinion in China against its government." Many people don't find this information surprising or even consider it "news." The US is a habitual offender, using various covert means to foment "peaceful evolution" and "color revolutions" in other countries, with the CIA being the main force employed to this end. For other countries, the US' pervasive influence is everywhere, visible and tangible, so there is no need for exposés.

We are still unclear  what the specific purpose of the "former US official" was in leaking the information to Reuters. A CIA spokesperson declined to comment on the existence of the program, its goals or impact. A spokesperson for the Biden administration's National Security Council also declined to comment, which means it was neither confirmed nor denied. The US intelligence community often uses a mixture of false and true information to create confusion, a tactic that was used on Edward Snowden. The Reuters report is valuable, but needs to be further processed to filter out the true and useful parts.

Firstly, this report carries a strong defense of US penetration into China. It portrays the proactive offensive of the US' cognitive warfare against China as a passive counterattack against "cyber attacks" on the US from China and Russia. In reality, portraying themselves as the weak or victimized party and labeling their hegemonic actions as "justice" is a part of the US' cognitive warfare against foreign countries.

One US official interviewed by Reuters even said it felt like China was attacking the US with "steel baseball bats," while the US could only fight back with "wooden ones," showing his exaggerated and clumsy acting skills. The US has never used a "wooden stick." Over the past few decades, the CIA has overthrown or attempted to overthrow at least 50 legitimate international governments. There are also statistics showing that from 1946 to 2000, the US attempted to influence elections in 45 countries 81 times to achieve regime change. As a habitual offender of manipulating public opinions, the US has long established a series of tactics in its targeted propaganda, information dissemination, event creation, rumor fabrication, incitement of public opinion, and media manipulation. It constantly creates new tactics and uses new technologies according to changing circumstances. This is an open secret. The US dressing itself up as a "little lamb" only has a comedic effect, not a propaganda effect.

Next, as the US' intervention and infiltration in other countries are covert operations, this disclosure provides an opportunity for the outside world to glimpse into the specific methods used by the US. For example, the whistleblower admitted that the CIA had formed a small team of operatives, using bogus online identities to spread damaging stories about the Chinese government while simultaneously disseminating defamatory content to overseas news agencies. This corroborates with previous statements by CIA Director William Burns, indicating increased resources being allocated for intelligence activities against China, once again confirming the existence of the US "1450" (internet water army) team targeting China.

The whistleblower admitted that the CIA has targeted public opinion in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the South Pacific region, spreading negative narratives about the Belt and Road Initiative. This indicates that in the US-instigated propaganda war against China, the global public opinion arena, especially in "Global South" countries, is their main strategic target. Various "China threat" theories circulating in third-party countries, as consistently pointed out by China, are all being operated by the US intelligence agencies behind the scenes.

The US has never concealed its hegemonic aims, nor does it regard encroachment on other countries' sovereignty as something to be ashamed of, which is even more infuriating than the hegemonic behavior itself. American economist Jeffrey Sachs criticized the CIA's blatant violation of international law in his commentary last month, stating that it is "devastating to global stability and the US rule of law," leading to "an escalating regional war, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and millions of displaced people." He also criticized the mainstream American media for failing to question or investigate the CIA. In fact, far from acting as watchdogs, mainstream American media has served as an accomplice. How many rumors manufactured by the CIA have been spread through the mouths of mainstream American media? When did they reflect and correct themselves?

We also see that the intentions of the US intelligence agencies are even more sinister. As admitted in the revelations, they aim to force China to spend valuable resources in defending against "cognitive warfare," keeping us busy with "chasing ghosts," and disrupting our development pace. First of all, we appreciate their reminder. At the same time, we will not allow external factors to interfere with our strategic determination to manage our own affairs well. For China and the world, the more fully, clearly, and thoroughly the CIA exposes itself, the deeper people will understand its true nature, and the stronger their ability to discern the truth will become. Keeping the CIA busy to no end or failing in their attempts is the best preventive effect.

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How the CIA Destabilizes the World


 

Sunday 17 September 2023

Chips, politics and economic dominance

Officially Huawei became the world’s number one smartphone player after shipping 55.8 million handsets, surpassing Samsung in the second quarter of 2020. — Bloomberg

SMIC'S progress in industry commendable effort despite sanctions

 
TWO weeks ago, without much fanfare or large-scale promotional event, Huawei Technologies launched a surprise pre-sale of its latest Mate flagship model.

This was out of the blue, considering that Huawei suffered for the past three years since the United States trade sanction during the Donald Trump-led administration which placed Huawei on the export blacklist depriving the phone and network giant from key semiconductor components necessary to manufacture its successful premium smartphone products.

At its peak in 2020, Huawei had 38% of China’s total smartphone market share with Vivo coming in second at 17.7% and Oppo coming in third at 17.4%.

Globally, Huawei had just over 10% with much room to catch up to Samsung and Apple, which had an estimated 30% and 26% respectively.

Despite that, it officially became the world’s number one smartphone player after shipping 55.8 million handsets, surpassing Samsung in the second quarter of 2020.

This did not last long, as in the year after the trade sanctions kicked in, Huawei suffered immensely when its revenue for the consumer division plunged 47% in the first half of 2021 and fell out of the world’s top five smartphone maker for the first time in six years. 

 If that wasn’t enough, Huawei had to endure a prolonged winter because of the sanctions with market commentators even speculating they will exit the smartphone market entirely.

To stay afloat, Huawei sold off its entire stake in Honor, the budget range smartphone business for Us$15.2bil to Shenzhen Zhixin New Information Technology Co Ltd, a consortium made up of over 30 dealers and includes a state-owned enterprise of the municipal government of Shenzhen.

Hence, when social media caught wind of Huawei Mate 60 pro with videos of long queues for the launch of the smartphone, it attracted global attention. The two questions on everyone’s mind were, “how did Huawei do it with the sanctions ongoing?” and “is this the start of Huawei’s path to reclaim its smartphone throne?”

For those who are not too familiar, one should understand that chips are denominated in different measurements such as 5nm, 7nm and 10nm. It represents the specific generation of chips made with a particular technology and the smaller numbers represent more advanced and efficient technology.

In the past, these numbers indicated the size of the smallest features or transistors that can be produced on a chip using a particular manufacturing process.

What is interesting about Huawei’s latest smartphone launch is that the Kirin 9000s System on Chip that powers the phone model appears to be manufactured using an advanced 7nm process.

Following the trade sanction which was meant to cripple Huawei’s advancement in smartphone manufacturing, most would assume that Huawei would not have access to advanced chips.

In addition, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), China’s state-backed chip manufacturer which is widely regarded to be the top in China, is only capable of producing 14nm at that time. In addition, SMIC has not been able to procure the advanced Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems that are used to produce chips at 7nm and below before they were sanctioned as well.

Based on teardown analysis by reviewers online, the chip’s overall performance seems to match that of Snapdragon 888 or Apple A13 chipsets which were launched in 2019-2020. But for those who might have some familiarity with the chip fabrication industry, this is likely not the case as the 7nm chip could be produced using the older generation deep ultraviolet machines which China manufacturers can still import.

This would require usage of multi-patterning, a technique that has been utilised by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) in 2017 of producing 7nm chips before EUV was introduced.

In fact, SMIC reportedly used this technique to produce a 7nm chip for bitcoin miners last year, so they are no stranger to the technique.

The downside of this technique is that it will waste more time, energy, water, while also resulting in higher defects and lower yield. Hence the cost of production is likely much higher.

Nonetheless, EUV machines are still needed to advance beyond 5nm process, and at 3nm and below, multi-patterning would be required even with EUV machines. Hence, we can say that the real bottleneck of the United States trade sanction will hit it hard beyond 5nm.

Currently, SMIC, while improving, is still lagging its global peers; TSMC and Samsung have already started mass production of chips using the 3nm process in 2022 which is two generations ahead of the 7nm process used by SMIC.

The gap is around four years but without access to EUV machines, it could take much longer for SMIC to reach 3nm. It is important to note that all its competitors are now working towards mass production of 2nm chips in 2025.

Considering how SMIC is also sanctioned by the United States, it is remarkable to see it making progress. SMIC will likely continue to be supported by the Chinese government in developing advanced chips.

So long as self-interest politics remains the priority over mutual prosperity and the technology transfer agenda, we will see companies and manufacturing bases move across regions based on the countries’ political alignments or foreign policies rather than merits.

Apart from the United States and European manufacturers that have been diversifying production out of China, even some Chinese suppliers are building new factories in our country as they do not want to lose their markets outside of China.

For now, most are setting up in the existing states with matured industry supply chains such as in Penang and Johor.

Hence, sad to say, while this fight between the two economic powerhouse is detrimental to the world in the long term, in the short term, it appears that it is good for our nation, and we should continue to capitalise on the opportunity.

At the end of the day, every country, especially the larger economies, hopes to maintain its economic dominance over the rest of the world. This era, thankfully, is not an era where the wars between countries are fought with guns and bullets. It is an era where the race is on technological advancement and scientific breakthrough.

Apart from the semiconductor chip competition that has been ongoing since the start of the United States-china trade war, the Covid-19 global pandemic has raised the awareness for the government on the importance on advancing research and development in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Even countries with the strongest military power cannot avoid the same fate of being engulfed in the effects of the pandemic like any other Third World country.

Unlike the United States, Europe, Taiwan and South Korea, China started research and development in the semiconductor industry much later. We must remember China only started focusing on developing its advanced chip technology recently.

Before the decoupling with the United States happened in 2020, there was no urgency to do so, given that they could still rely on imported technology.

As nations around the world continue to become more tribal, it is crucial to be self-sufficient, be it in the area of technology development, healthcare or food security. It may take awhile but eventually, government leaders ought to revert to multilateralism and focus on the benefits of building a global economy in the interests of mankind.

That is the best way forward for humanity.

By NG ZHU HANN

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Ten Republican lawmakers jointly sent a letter dated Thursday to Alan Estevez, undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, exerting pressure and presenting seven demands. These demands include the establishment of a new agency dedicated to controlling the export of American technology to China, imposing “full blocking sanctions” on both Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and Huawei, and placing all their subsidiary companies on the Entity List.

Friday 16 June 2023

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to visit China as Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang speaks with him, amid Hype over 'taking the same page' from Washington's playbook

 As agreed upon by both China and the US, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China from June 18 to 19, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. 

 


 
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 Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang speaks with Blinken, clarifying China’s stance on core concerns including Taiwan question

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang had a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday at the latter’s request, clarifying China's firm stance on core concerns such as the Taiwan question, according to a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Qin pointed out that since the beginning of the year, China-US relations have faced new difficulties and challenges, and the responsibility is clear. China has always viewed and handled China-US relations following the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Qin clarified China's firm stance on core concerns such as the Taiwan question, emphasizing that the US should respect it, stop interfering in China's internal affairs, and stop harming China's sovereign security and development interests in the name of competition.

The Chinese diplomat said he hopes that the US will take practical actions to implement the important consensus reached between the two heads of state at the G20 Bali meeting and the relevant commitments made by the US, move toward China, effectively manage differences, promote exchanges and cooperation, and get China-US relations back on track to healthy and stable development.

Washington continued hyping China-related topics ahead of a reported trip by Blinken to China as the Biden administration said it has "taken diplomatic steps" that slowed China's intelligence presence overseas following its recent hype over an alleged "Cuba spy base." The latest US move was criticized by China on Tuesday as "taking the same page" of the US' playbook. 

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Hype over China-related topics 'taking the same page' from Washington's playbook

Cartoon: Carlos Latuff


Washington continued hyping China-related topics ahead of a reported trip by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China as the Biden administration said it has "taken diplomatic steps" that slowed China's intelligence presence overseas following its recent hype over an alleged "Cuba spy base." The latest US move was criticized by China on Tuesday as "taking the same page" of the US' playbook.

Chinese experts also warned that the senior US official may use this trip and some topics of concern as a bargaining chip while continuing to hype the so-called China threat. Considering the recent words and deeds emanating from the US side, the trip, if it happens, would be ill-intentioned, some experts said. They said they believe there is a strong opposition force within Washington against the possible improvement of US-China relations, as any positive signs could make the Biden administration appear to be too soft.

The Biden administration has taken "diplomatic steps" that have slowed down a Chinese effort to "project military power" around the world, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, as the Reuters reported.

Washington's top diplomat was asked at a press conference about Washington's response to a Wall Street Journal report last week that cited US officials as saying a new "spying effort" was underway on Cuba, according to the media report.

China has already refuted the US' groundless accusations that China uses a secret base in Cuba to spy on the US. And some Chinese experts warned that the US' groundless accusations could become another "spy balloon incident" that may once again drag on Washington's plan to reengage with China.

"I've stated China's position on similar questions several times. The US has been taking the same page from its playbook and people are already quite familiar with it," Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told a routine press conference on Tuesday.

We hope the US will take a hard look at itself, stop propagating rumors and smears, and stop being a champion of hacking with its indiscriminate surveillance on other countries, Wang said.

Despite both the National Security Council spokesperson and Pentagon press official had said that reports about the so-called spy base in Cuba are inaccurate, senior US officials, congressmen and media continue to fuel the speculation, showing their malicious intent, Ma Hui, Chinese Ambassador to Cuba, told the Global Times on late Tuesday.

“The US’ claim that China is committed to expanding its military presence globally is a complete misrepresentation,” Ma said.

In the eyes of Chinese experts, there has been a growing contradiction between the US' actions and the continual signals it sends indicating a desire for engagement with China, which only fuels more doubts about the US' sincerity and its true intention.

"Blinken may include some of topics of concern in the visit and use it to continue hyping the 'threat of China,' this indicates the visit would be ill-intentioned," Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Whether the trip could be realized or not, it won't slow down the US containment against China, and although Washington claimed to have tried to seek communication with China, its true intention is smearing and suppressing China, Li said.

On Monday, the US Commerce Department announced to put 43 entities into its so-called Entity List, including 31 Chinese entities as it restricted exports to entities that it says recruited Western pilots to train Chinese military personnel and help develop hypersonic weapons.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry slammed the US act on Tuesday, saying that the US abused state power to go after Chinese companies, trampled on international trade order and global trade rules and destabilized global industrial and supply chains hysterically by all kinds of means.

Besides targeting the Chinese companies, the US continued hyping the Taiwan question, as some US media reported on Monday that the US government is preparing "evacuation plans" for American citizens living in Taiwan due to concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Taiwan Straits.

Before the US started its recent push to engage with China, there have been "some little tricks," making others doubt its credibility, and they are likely to leverage those topics as bargaining chips in talks with China, Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

“The US should cherish a possible positive trend for the US-China engagement and not waste any goodwill to stabilize bilateral relations,” Diao said. 

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If China does not help the United States, the United States will once again experience the 2008 financial crisis.

If the United States extends its financial crisis to other countries, they will allow the United States to become a second-rate country.

The United States relies on alliances to suppress other non alliance countries. When the United States cannot meet the interests of alliance countries, other countries will begin to unite to suppress the United States.

The EU economy has been basically stagnant since 2008, and the proliferation of the US dollar and inflation will make American allies believe that the United States cannot become the appropriate leader.

The Middle East, Latin America, and Africa will not trust the United States. These places have had enough of the United States.

Eastern Europe believes more in Russia, Southeast Asia believes more in China, and South Asia believes less in the United States.

The U.S. manufacturing industry only accounts for 10% of GDP, and the U.S. cannot produce enough goods to supply 300 million people.

If the United States wants to regain control of manufacturing, it must have started preparations at least 20 years ago.

The scale of China's manufacturing industry is equal to the sum of the United States + the European Union.

Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa, these countries exchange raw materials for euros and dollars.

The currencies of the European Union and North America depreciated, resulting in these countries being unable to exchange more goods.

What people in most countries of the world want is a normal life.

Ordinary people in these countries find that the harder they work, the less Western goods they get.

The western model cannot provide normal life for other countries.

If you remove the US medical and lawyer GDP, you will find that China's GDP is stronger than that of the US.

Legal fees, rent, and medical care, these three are cancer cells, and they eat up a large number of savings of ordinary Americans.

The price is that the life expectancy of Americans is lower than that of China, and there are more homeless people in the United States than in China, and the endless lawsuits intensify social internal friction.

Therefore, I said that the problems in the United States are self-inflicted, but no leader in the United States will solve the problems in the United States, and many interest groups will hinder the reform of the United States.

 

Friday 19 May 2023

The stark contrast between China-Central Asia Summit at Xi'an injects multilateral clean stream while G7 summit at Hiroshima dumps political sewage

 


 


What is true multilateralism and what is pseudo-multilateralism? China's Xi'an on Thursday and Japan's Hiroshima on Friday provide two samples. The China-Central Asia Summit and the Group of Seven (G7) Summit held in these two cities respectively are vivid and accurate representation and illustration. The international community can see the contrast clearly.


The leaders of China and the five Central Asian countries are meeting in Xi'an, the eastern starting point of the ancient Silk Road. The profound meaning it represents transcends time, space and national boundaries. The six countries trade with each other, have friendly exchanges in diplomacy, and learn from each other in culture. This kind of communication mode of openness, tolerance, mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit has continued from the ancient Silk Road to today's "Belt and Road," showing a strong vitality and charisma.

This is true multilateralism, which is deeply rooted and popular in the world. It is committed to tackling challenges through cooperation, addressing issues that matter to all through consultation, and pursuing unity rather than division, cooperation rather than confrontation. The China-Central Asia Summit is a concrete practice of true multilateralism. It not only promotes the development of relations between China and Central Asian countries, but also injects a clear stream into the complicated and turbulent international situation where some people deliberately muddle the water. As a result, Xi'an, the ancient capital of thousands of years, presents a new look.


The G7 summit to be held in Hiroshima, Japan, makes an instant contrastive display of pseudo-multilateralism, or defines pseudo-multilateralism. What it engages in is an exclusive and closed clique that provokes geopolitical antagonism and confrontation. Even before the G7 summit is held, it released negative information one after another. In addition to further adding fuel to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it also targets China - its interest has been on forming groups to strengthen containment of other countries. Japan's insistence on dumping its nuclear-contaminated wastewater into the Pacific has aroused the international community's indignation, and Japan, which holds the rotating presidency of the G7, has also turned this year's G7 meeting into a geopolitical drain.

"Truth" and "falsehood" will inevitably have a fierce collision. Even if "truth" does not care about "falsehood," "falsehood" will still smear "truth" in order to deceive others. This is the fundamental reason why some Western media and public opinion launch concentrated attacks and provocations against the China-Central Asia Summit. Behind every attack lies their dark intentions.

The hegemonic thinking of the US imposes a multiple-choice question on non-Western countries, dividing the diverse world into allies, geopolitical pawns, and geopolitical opponents or even enemies, and treating them differently. G7 countries are allies, Central Asian countries are pawns, and China is an opponent. This seems clear and distinct in Washington's eyes. However, they will never realize the immense disrespect toward countries seen as pawns and the great malice toward countries seen as opponents. Even allies are often the bullying targets that can be blackmailed at US will. They also disregard the serious damage caused by their actions to the overall interests of humanity.

The stark contrast between the clean stream of multilateralism injected by China and Central Asian countries in Xi'an and the geopolitical sewage discharged by the G7 in Hiroshima is evident. In terms of intentions, on one side, there is a shared destiny when both sides benefit based on mutual respect and equality; on the other side, there is the imperial arrogance of "one is superior than others," and the interest system of "Washington supremacy." In terms of specific actions, on one side, there is a focus on "development first," where anything beneficial for development and prosperity is promoted, which inherently makes it open and inclusive; on the other side, there are manifestations of closed and narrow-minded clique politics, filled with confrontation and destruction.

On one side is the extensive consultation and joint contribution, while on the other side is the bargaining "unified stance." These two summits vividly reflect two completely different approaches to dealing with each other in today's world. Washington officials are believed to have a clear target when talking about the G7 Summit, that is, confronting China. In contrast, China has clearly stated that its cooperation with Central Asia is not aimed at any third party, nor does it intend to compete with other mechanisms. China is willing to support any measures that are truly beneficial to regional stability and development and conducive to common prosperity in the region. The two different mindsets, perspectives and patterns are clearly distinguishable.

In recent years, different choices have written different annotations. In terms of development, the Belt and Road Initiative has brought a lot of development opportunities to countries along the route. The participation of the five Central Asian countries in the summit in Xi'an is the most convincing example. In terms of security, the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security has become increasingly popular. It has promoted a gratifying wave of reconciliation in the Middle East and can be expected to bear fruits in more places in the future. On the other hand, Washington also invested a lot of costs in diplomacy after the end of the Cold War. However, the fact is that wherever it focuses on, there is confrontation and turmoil. From the Iraq War, the Syria War, the "Arab Spring" to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which one does not have the shadow of the US and the West behind it?

In this sense, some Western media outlets comparing the China-Central Asia Summit with the G7 Summit is a good thing. It allows the world to see what the right path for humanity is, what the people support and what the future of mankind is. 

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China releases report unveiling dark side of US coercive diplomacy ahead of G7 summit

While accusing other countries of using their great power status to ensure obedience, the US is the actual instigator of coercive diplomacy, with a disgraceful "dark history" that has caused immense suffering for the world, particularly developing countries, which have borne the brunt of its actions. Even the US' allies and partners have not been spared from it, said a report released by China's Xinhua News Agency on Thursday.

Within the framework of the C+C5 mechanism, the probability of solving various kinds of strategic issues that go beyond the individual states of the region increases. It is believed that C+C5 is a more effective mechanism for bilateral ties

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Thursday 4 May 2023

The new Cold War heats up


 Insightful views: Kishore giving his assessment on the US-China rivalry during his lecture in Kuala Lumpur. -

The new Cold War heats up

International relations expert Kishore Mahbubani has interesting views on US-China rivalry and the role Asean could play.

IT’S not every day that one gets to hear directly from Prof Kishore Mahbubani, one of the best thinkers on international relations.

In fact, it had taken the organiser, the Malaysian Institute of Management, over two years to invite the Singaporean diplomat, academician and best-selling author to Kuala Lumpur.

Those of us who turned up for his lecture on Tuesday evening wanted to hear his assessment of the United States-China rivalry, which is certain to get worse in the coming years.

Kishore is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asian Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and has had two notable careers – 33 years in diplomacy and 15 years in academia.

He was the founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and spent over 10 years as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations.

He has authored several books, including best-sellers such as Can Asians Think? and Has The West Lost It?.His insightful views on the US-China geopolitical rivalry have grabbed the attention of many.

Gloomy as it may be, it is certain and unavoidable – in Kishore’s own words – that the rivalry will worsen as the Chinese push to challenge the United States for dominance.

For us living in the Asean region, especially Malaysians, it is more troubling as the power play is taking place in our backyard, the South China Sea, while Taiwan is merely about four hours away by flight.

Kishore predicts the contest, if not already a feud, will accelerate in the next 10 years and he doesn’t see it quietening down.

The scenario is unprecedented as for the first time in human history, these two superpowers are colliding.

Driven by what he describes as structural forces, he sees China as the “No. 2 that is about to take over as No. 1 and the US will push down China” at all costs as the latter does not see itself losing its pole position.

“They should learn from the Malaysian monarchy (where the reigning King) steps down every five years,’’ he joked.

He said in his highly provocative titled book Has China Won? that it hasn’t helped that the many US policymakers who will drive this geopolitical contest are “possessed by a psychology that sees all competition among great powers as a zero-sum game”.

“Hence, if China steps up its naval deployments in the South China Sea, the US Navy will see it as a loss and step up its presence in the region,” he said.

There is much insecurity on the part of the United States as “it is far from certain that America will win the contest as China has as good a chance as America of emerging as the dominant influence in the world”.

“In fact, many thoughtful leaders and observers in strategically sensitive countries around the world have begun making preparations for a world where China may become number one,” said Kishore.

He said it was an error of perception for America to view the CCP as a Chinese Communist Party embedded in communist roots, when in the eyes of Asian observers, the CCP actually functions as the “Chinese Civilisation Party” with its soul rooted in Chinese civilisation.

But Kishore has some advice for China – never underestimate the United States.

It’s a giant that has woken up and it has won the narrative, with the support of a powerful international media, that it is a contest between a democracy and an authoritarian government.

“It has been a strategic mistake for American thinkers to take success for granted, it would be an equally colossal strategic mistake for China to assume the same,” he said.

Painting the Chinese as demonic has been an easy selling point to the American public, most of whom have never travelled out of their country, added Kishore, saying in his book that it will be easier “for Americans to persist in the belief that they would eventually triumph against China, no matter the odds”.

Both the Republicans and Democrats have adopted the same tone and strategy of containing China.

So, it doesn’t matter who the next US President is although it got worse under President Donald Trump. It has simply become a bipartisan policy.

The rest of the world, especially Asean, will be affected by this great power play. No one will be spared as pressure will be applied to countries to take sides.

Even a simple acquisition of technology, such as using Huawei’s applications, has turned complicated.

Kishore shared an anecdote of how a British top official had told him that it would use Huawei as security clearance, and with a stiff upper lip, said there was no reason for it to submit to US pressure.

But just months later, the United Kingdom “crumbled” to US pressure and abandoned Huawei.

He feared that Taiwan would be a more sensitive issue than the South China Sea as it benefits the United States and China to keep the international waterways safe for freedom of navigation.

But Taiwan is a more potential flash point. It is the red line that no one should cross, and most Asians know it and “they shut up”, he said, advising Asian countries to continue with this approach.

The Chinese see Taiwan as a renegade province that belongs to China and do not tolerate any moves to push for independence. Most countries adopt a One China policy and have no diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Kishore said for a long time, the United States stayed away from the Taiwan issue, but now it has been broached and “it is not rational, it’s dangerous and emotional”.

But he said Asean could play an influential role to speak up for moderate measures to initiate dialogues between the United States and China and to help reduce tensions that could contribute to possibilities of a war.

He acknowledged that Asean may be “weak and chaotic”, but paradoxically, no one sees the grouping as a threat and its meetings were all attended by the powerful nations.

“Everyone loves Asean. It has convening abilities,” he said, adding that both China and the United States had invested huge amounts there compared to other regions of the world.

China has been the largest market for Asean exports for the past 12 years and Malaysia’s number one trading partner for the past 15 consecutive years, while Asean countries collectively are the United States’ fourth largest trading partner.

Together, they represent a market with a gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$3 trillion (RM13.38 trillion). US goods and services traded with Asean totalled an estimated US$362.2bil (RM1.62 trillion) in 2020.

Kishore said while the US-China contest may be a gloomy topic, there is also a positive aspect as both sides will woo support and attention, adding that it was good to be courted but reaffirmed that Asean members must stay out of the feud.

“It is said that when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled, but let’s not forget that when elephants make love, it tramples too,’’ he said in jest.

Talk is better than war and for a start, the rhetoric can be lowered down. A deeper rationality is needed and surely, there is a need to accept that the world has changed.

A painful and unnecessary clash needs to be avoided. The journey for both sides to work together has to start soon.


Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 35 years in various capacities and roles. He is now group editorial and corporate affairs adviser to the group, after having served as group managing director/chief executive officer. On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.

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